QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8  ARLP008
>From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA  February 23, 2001
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7VVV

The sun continues to be quiet, and this really looks like a
significant decline in activity. Average daily sunspot numbers for
the first and second weeks of this month were 149.1 and 143.7, and
it was 124.1 for this past week. The average solar flux for each of
those same weeks also declined. It was 164.9, 150.7 and 136.1.
Solar flux last Friday was 129.6. Flux values have not been this low
since May 6, 2000, when it was 126.8, and prior to that on January
29, 2000 when it was 127.7.

If the peak in the cycle was in mid-2000, then these were possibly
on the other side of the cycle peak.

Forecast for the next few days shows solar flux values of 150 for
Friday and Saturday and 145 for Sunday and Monday. The planetary A
index is predicted to be a very quiet 5 on all of those days. Solar
flux is expected to dip again to around 135 on the last day of this
month, next Wednesday, then rise to around 165 for the first week of
March.

Scott Craig is looking for some volunteers to beta test version 3.11
of his solar plotting software. You can email him for this test only
at sol@craigcentral.com.

We are about a month away from the spring equinox, when some of the
best seasonal HF conditions prevail. Look for 20 meter openings
later into the evening. 10 meters will probably be good for only
another two months or so, so now through the equinox is probably the
best time to work that band. Our path projection for this week is
for 40 meters only, and only to Great Britain for this weekend's
RSGB 7 MHz Contest, which is CW only.

To England, from Seattle on 40 meters, 2330-1000z (best 0200-0630
UTC), San Francisco, 0030-0930z (best 0230-0630z), Los Angeles,
0030-0930z (best around 0200z), Arizona (between Phoenix and Tucson)
0000-0930z (best around 0130z), Salt Lake City 2330-0930z (best
0130-0630z), Omaha 2130-1030z (best 0030-0630z).

The center of the continental U.S. 2130-1100z (best 0100-0700z),
Minneapolis 2100-1030z (best 0000-0700z), Cleveland 2030-1000z (best
2330-0700z), Hawaii 0400-0900z (best around 0500z), Alaska open all
hours, best 0330-0630z, weakest 0900z and 1530z.

Japan 1400-2300z (best 1800- 2100z), Chicago 2100-1030z (best
0000-0700z), Dallas 2300- 0930z (best 0030-0700z), El Paso
2330-0930z (best 0100-0630z), Louisiana 2230-0930z (best
0000-0700z), Birmingham, AL 2130-1030z (best 0000-0700z), Columbia,
MO 2130-1030z (best 0030-0630z), Pocatello, ID 2330-1000z (best
0130-0630z).

Billings, MT 2130-1130z (best 0130-0700z), Atlanta 2130-1000z (best
0000-0700z), Nashville 2130-1030z (best 0000-0730z), Philadelphia
2030-1000z (best 2300-0630z), New York City 2000-1030z (best
2300-0630z), Boston 1930-1000z (best around 2230z.

Sunspot numbers for February 15 through 21 were 113, 133, 95, 143,
147, 119 and 119 with a mean of 124.1. 10.7 cm flux was 135.1,
129.6, 129.8, 132, 137, 145.5 and 143.6, with a mean of 136.1, and
estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 3, 4, 6, 8 and 6 with a
mean of 5.