QST de W1AW
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21 ARLP021
> From Tad Cook, K7VVV
> Seattle, WA May 24, 2002
> To all radio amateurs
> SB PROP ARL ARLP021
> ARLP021 Propagation de K7VVV
> Sunspot counts and solar flux reached a short-term minimum late last
> week, but both seem to be on the rise again. Average daily sunspot
> numbers were down nearly 35 points from last week, and average solar
> flux was down eight points. Predicted solar flux for this weekend
> is 175 for Friday and 170 for both Saturday and Sunday. Flux values
> are expected to rise to around 190 by month's end.
> Geomagnetic disturbances are the bigger news this week, with a
> geomagnetic storm on Thursday, May 23, caused by a series of three
> coronal mass ejections on the previous day. Planetary A index was
> 54 on Thursday, and planetary K index reached seven over two 3-hour
> periods. This means generally lousy HF radio conditions with
> enhanced absorption, especially at higher latitudes.
> Several sunspot groups in view have potential for more fireworks.
> Currently the predicted A index for Friday through Sunday is 30, 15
> and 10. The high A and K values don't look good if they persist
> during this weekend's CQ Worldwide WPX CW Contest, but if there are
> no more coronal mass ejections or flares, the bands could recover.
> As this was being written on Thursday evening the planetary K index
> had dropped to three and so had the mid-latitude K index, as
> reported by WWV.
> NW7US sent along a tip for propagation watchers who have WAP enabled
> wireless devices. Point your WAP device toward
> wap.hfradio.org/ . A normal web browser will get redirected
> to hfradio.org/ , but a cell phone will see WML instead of
> HTML providing solar and geomagnetic information.
> KB6HCN recently sent along a URL to a nice image of the sun. See
> antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap020508.html , and for a larger
> image click on the photo and go to
> antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0205/sun2_trace_big.jpg .
> Sunspot numbers for May 16 through 22 were 120, 134, 140, 155, 171,
> 185, and 217, with a mean of 160.3. 10.7 cm flux was 158.4, 157.1,
> 163, 170.9, 171.3, 185.9, and 181.1, with a mean of 169.7.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 10, 15, 18, 14, 14, and 14,
> with a mean of 13.9.
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