QST de W1AW
> >Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044
> > >From Tad Cook, K7VVV
> >Seattle, WA  October 26, 2001
> >To all radio amateurs
> >
> >SB PROP ARL ARLP044
> >ARLP044 Propagation de K7VVV
> >
> >Solar flux and sunspot numbers rose this week. Unfortunately for HF
> >operators, so did geomagnetic activity. Average sunspot numbers rose
> >nearly 47 points and average daily solar flux was up nearly 43
> >points.
> >
> >Geomagnetic conditions were quite active on Sunday and Monday, and
> >reached a peak on Monday with a planetary A index of 66. Planetary K
> >indices were 5 during three of the three-hour reporting periods, 6
> >during three periods, and 7 during one period. This indicates a
> >severe geomagnetic storm, one that produced dramatic aurora
> >displays.
> >
> >Conditions were worse toward the poles. Alaska's College A index was
> >93 on Monday, with the K index as high as 8. HF radio operators like
> >a K index of 3 or less.
> >
> >What is bad for HF conditions can make VHF very interesting. JA7SSB
> >reported that 6-meters was quite active in Japan, with SSB signals
> >from Italy monitored in Sendai City, 350 km north of Tokyo around
> >0600z on Monday. On both Monday and Tuesday from 0600-0900z, JA7SSB
> >was hearing VK9 (Norfolk Island), VK, A51, KH6 and FO signals from
> >his QTH in Fukushima, 80 km south of Sendai.
> >
> >All this excitement was from solar activity on Friday when flares
> >erupted above sunspot 9661. Another coronal mass ejection hit the
> >earth's magnetosphere on October 25, but did not cause a
> >disturbance. K indices on Wednesday and Thursday were very low,
> >around 1 and 2, and the planetary A index on Wednesday 3.
> >
> >Even though conditions had quieted down by Thursday, this does not
> >look like a quiet weekend for the CQ Worldwide DX SSB Contest. A
> >flare around 1500z on Thursday caused a strong radio blackout across
> >the Americas and Europe. This expanding cloud of energy will
> >probably strike earth this weekend, ruining northern propagation
> >paths.
> >
> >When this occurs, some operators notice an enhanced north-south
> >propagation path, but what really happens is that the north-south
> >path is often the only remaining path for HF propagation.
> >
> >The latest projections late Thursday predict a declining solar flux
> >of 230, 225, 220 and 215 for Friday through Monday, and an A index
> >of 10, 20, 30 and 15 for those same days.
> >
> >Sunspot numbers for October 18 through 24 were 182, 219, 230, 239,
> >207, 231 and 230 with a mean of 219.7. 10.7 cm flux was 228.7,
> >247.6, 244.7, 224.1, 232.7, 226.4 and 238.7, with a mean of 234.7,
> >and estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 10, 40, 66, 15 and 3
> >with a mean of 20.9.
> >