QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
>From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 26, 2001
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7VVV
Last week's bulletin came out a couple of days early because of the
holiday. This bulletin has the data that was missing from last
For the reporting week, which ended last Wednesday, average daily
sunspot numbers were down nearly 52 points and average solar flux
was off over 45 points. The decline continued for the past few
days, with solar flux dropping to 177, 173 and 170. Solar flux
should be at a short-term minimum about now. Solar flux for this
Monday through Friday is projected at 170, 170, 175, 185 and 190.
A powerful geomagnetic storm raged this weekend, disrupting HF
contest activity and producing more aurora displays. This was
caused by two coronal mass ejections, and the effects were felt
around 0530z on November 24. The planetary K index reached 9,
indicating a severe storm, and the planetary A index for the day was
108. Northern lights were seen as far south as Arkansas and Texas.
A recent holographic image of the sun's far side shows a large
sunspot in the southern hemisphere.
Sunspot numbers for November 15 through 21 were 219, 200, 157, 181,
168, 160 and 132 with a mean of 173.9. 10.7 cm flux was 207, 202.1,
198.5, 188.2, 191.3, 185 and 184.2, with a mean of 193.8, and
estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 11, 7, 16, 8 and 6 with a
mean of 9.
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