QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 55 ARLP055
>From Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA
Ft. Wayne, IN December 28, 2001
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP055
ARLP055 Propagation de K9LA
Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA is filling in this week for Tad Cook,
This report is for the period Friday December 21 through Thursday
Solar activity was low at the beginning of the reporting period,
with only class C flares occurring. Solar activity increased to high
levels toward the end of the period due to many class M flares, the
biggest being an M7 proton flare on December 26. This flare produced
a short duration 100MeV proton event, and a longer duration 10MeV
proton event that is still in progress.
A PCA (Polar Cap Absorption) event also occurred, reaching a peak
absorption of about 9dB at 1115z on December 26. Accompanying the
M7 flare was a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection).
Geophysical activity mostly ranged from quiet to unsettled over the
The Penticton (British Columbia) 10.7 cm solar flux was 234 on
December 21 and gradually increased to 275 on December 27.
The daily planetary magnetic index Ap was below 10 for most of the
period. It is predicted to increase to around 30 on December 28 due
to the CME activity of December 26. This will result in minor storm
conditions, but these conditions are expected to be relatively
K7VVV will be back next week with this week's sunspot numbers, solar
flux numbers, and A indices.
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