QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1  ARLP001
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  January 4, 2016
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP001
ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

Happy New Year! This is the first time the propagation bulletin was
produced and distributed on New Year's Day. Thanks to Rick
Lindquist, WW1ME for putting in the extra time and effort.

Over the past week, average daily sunspot numbers were up, but
average daily solar flux values were down, compared to the previous
seven days.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose 8.1 points to 57.7, and average
daily solar flux values were down 12.4 points to 109.9. Average
planetary A index declined from 21.7 to 8.9 and average mid-latitude
A index went from 12.6 to 5.9.

Predicted solar flux is 95 on January 1, 100 on January 2-7, 105 on
January 8, 110 on January 9-12, 105 on January 13-14, 110 on January
15, 115 on January 16-20, 110 on January 21-26, and 115 on January
27-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 30 on January 1, 18 on January 2-3,
12 and 8 on January 4-5, 20 on January 6-7, then 12, 10, 20, 18 and
10 on January 8-12, 5 on January 13-20, then 10, 15, 10 and 12 on
January 21-24, 10 on January 25-26, then 8, 15, 25, 18 and 12 on
January 27-31.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sees
active to disturbed geomagnetic conditions on January 1-2, quiet to
unsettled January 3-4, mostly quiet January 5, quiet to active
January 6, mostly quiet January 7, quiet on January 8, quiet to
unsettled January 9, active to disturbed January 10, quiet to active
January 11, quiet January 12, quiet to unsettled January 13, mostly
quiet January 14, quiet to unsettled January 15, quiet to active
January 16, mostly quiet January 17-18, quiet to unsettled January
19-20, mostly quiet January 21, quiet to active January 22, mostly
quiet January 23, quiet January 24-25, mostly quiet January 26 and
quiet to active January 27.

OK1HH believes there will be increased solar wind on January 3-7,
January 20-25, January 30 through February 4 and February 19-21.

At the beginning of the New Year, let's look at some of the numbers
we follow.

Average daily sunspot numbers during 2015 were the lowest since
2010.

Average daily sunspot numbers for each year from 2003-2015 were
109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1, 12.8, 4.7, 5.1, 25.5, 80.1, 82.3, 97.1,
121.2, and 70.1 in 2015.

We track a 3-month moving average of sunspot numbers, and for this
year, centered on January through November (November's average runs
from October 1, 2015 through December 31, 2015) the numbers were
98.2, 78.1, 68.2, 72.4, 77.7, 76.3, 69.1, 67.5, 64.5, 64.6, and
58.5.

Rich Zwirko, K1HTV of Amissville, Virginia sent a report on his
6-meter activity.

'After finishing a nice Christmas dinner I received a telephone call
from Marty, K2PLF in Maryland advising me of a 6 meter opening from
New Zealand to the Mid-Atlantic area. At 0207 UTC I heard and worked
ZL3RC (RE66) on SSB on 50120 KHz.  Two minutes later ZL3AAU (RE66)
on 50110, also on SSB, was in the K1HTV log. At 0223 UTC Rod, ZL3NW
(RE66) became the 3rd New Zealand station worked, this time on CW on
50100 KHz. Rod's signal was in for almost an hour into my FM18ap
Virginia QTH, being last heard at 0319 UTC. Also worked were KP3W
(FK68) at 0231 UTC and XE2X (EL06), both on CW. The opening was most
likely TEP with a single hop E-skip assist to the northeast. While
the band was open to New Zealand, many strong W5 stations were being
heard here. The SFI was 133 with the A Index at 9 and K Index at 2.

'Although not a new one on 6 meters for me, the three ZLs were a
nice Christmas surprise and new DXCC band countries for area 6 meter
DXers K2PLF, K3SX and W3LPL.

'What will the Magic Band bring next? I wouldn't be surprised to see
a VK station's signal make it into the States in the next few
weeks.'

I noticed on Rich's QRZ.com page he says he runs 100 watts or less
on HF, and has all DXCC entities confirmed except North Korea. I
just finished reading a fascinating book about 'The Hermit Kingdom'
which I highly recommend: 'A Kim Jong-Il production: the
extraordinary true story of a kidnapped filmmaker, his star actress,
and a young dictator's rise to power' by Paul Fischer.

I couldn't put it down.

Jon Jones, N0JK sent a report from KH6 using his phone:

'Usually December is a slow month on 6 meters from Hawaii, but the
New Year's Eve geo-mag storm created some enhanced conditions. I
heard the JA6YBR/B on 50.017 MHZ for about 30 minutes 579 at 2345
UTC December 31 from Oahu. No live stations heard. Suspect direct
F2.  Happy New Year! - Jon N0JK.'

And there is this story:
www.sciencerecorder.com/news/2015/12/31/sun-blasts-trigger-new-years-eve-storm/
.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at [email protected].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar
flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
bit.ly/1VOqf9B and bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .

Click on 'Download this file' to download the archive, and ignore
the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress
the download.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for December 24 through 30 were 51, 71, 63, 67, 64,
54, and 34, with a mean of 49.6. 10.7 cm flux was 132.7, 126.4,
117.4, 110.3, 112.1, 105.4, and 101.5, with a mean of 122.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 9, 15, 11, 5, 6, and 4, with
a mean of 21.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 6, 11, 7,
3, 4, and 2, with a mean of 12.6.