QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  January 14, 2022
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this warning at 2355 UTC
on January 13:

'A Southern coronal hole with extensions into the equatorial region
is expected to reach geoeffective location on the solar disk on late
UT day 15 January. As a result, unsettled to active conditions with
a chance of minor storms are possible on these two days.'

Two new sunspot groups emerged on January 9 and another on January
12, then three more on January 13. Average daily sunspot numbers
rose 6 points this week, to 42.4, and average daily solar flux
increased from 91.4 to 101.6.

Another positive sign yesterday, January 13, the daily sunspot
number soared to 111, far above the recent weekly average, and the
highest number since Christmas Day 2021.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter this week, with average daily
planetary A index declining from 7.7 to 6.1, and average daily
middle latitude A index from 6 to 4.1.

Spaceweather.com reported the new solar cycle is performing better
than expected, and used this illustration:

https://bit.ly/3GsbuFI

They went on to say sunspot counts exceeded predicted values for 15
straight months, and the monthly value at the end of December 2021
was the highest in 5 years and more than twice the value forecast by
the NOAA/NASA prediction panel.

Higher A index values on January 8 and 9 were from a G-1 class storm
caused by co-rotating interaction regions. See
https://bit.ly/3KahWmI

Predicted solar flux for the next month shows values peaking at 120
on January 21-24 and again around mid-February. Predicted values are
106, 108 and 110 on January 14-16, 108 on January 17-18, 106 and 104
on January 19-20, 120 on January 21-24, 110 on January 25, 100 on
January 26-27, then 95 and 90 on January 28-29, 85 on January 30
through February 1, 95 and 105 on February 2-3, 100 on February 4-5,
102 on February 6-7, 105 on February 8, 110 on February 9-10, 115 on
February 11-12, and 120 on February 13-20. Flux values are expected
to dip below 90 after February 25.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 14, then 14, 24, 12 and
8 on January 15-18, 5 on January 19-22, 10 on January 23, 8 on
January 24-26, 5 on January 27, 10 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31
through February 3, then 15, 10 and 8 on February 4-6, 5 on February
7-11, then 12, 10 and 8 on February 12-14, then 5 on February 15-18,
10 on February 19, and 8 on February 20-21.

>From F.K. Janda, OK1HH: 

'Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere-January 13, 2022.

'The current view of the distribution of active areas in the Sun
seems at first glance to be relatively simple. Current activity
should keep solar flux above 100 SFU. Other active areas beyond the
eastern limb of the solar disk, which we see thanks to the Stereo
satellite, should increase it somewhere to about 120 SFU soon. The
key feature for the influence towards the Earth is the prominence of
the southern polar coronal hole, which will be responsible for
increasing of the enhanced speed of the solar wind and the activity
of the Earth's magnetic field in the coming days. This is a
recurring event that will take place around January 16. After that
we expect a decline in solar activity at the end of January and the
beginning of February.'

N2CG wrote:

'On Monday January 10th 2022 around 1600 UTC I went on the DXMAPS
Website and clicked on the '50 MHz' tab and to my surprise found
that there was a very strong in progress 6m FT8 opening between
Florida and my NNJ FN20 QTH and the PA/NY/CT and Southern New
England area. Over the next 2-1/2 hours I casually made 6m FT8
contacts with 12 Florida stations in addition to C6ACB in FL15 and
CM2RSV in EL83. The band continued to be open from morning into the
afternoon and evening and finally closed at around midnight local
time, 0500 UTC.

'The next day January 11 6m again opened up on FT8 mode although not
as concentrated to Florida from my QTH. I worked stations on 6m FT8
in FL, GA, SC, OK and AR. At 2022 UTC I worked XE2X in EL06 on 6m
FT8.'

K9LA commented on the question from W1VTP about poor local 75 meter
propagation in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin.

'I'm active in the Indiana CW traffic net (QIN) and the Ninth Region
Net (9RN). We can also have problems on 80m in the winter months -
especially when we're still near solar minimum. Our Plan B is to
move to 160m, and that always works.

'Yes, it's due to the nighttime F2 region electron density being too
low to support high angle signals. I wrote about this in my April
2020 Monthly Feature on my website.' 

See https://bit.ly/3Fr4B66 for more details.

Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/AEhz4zfxre4

Local newspaper article about solar cycle progress with a nice solar
image:

https://bit.ly/3K8HK2O

Even Forbes has a solar update:

https://bit.ly/3qp0Olo

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, [email protected].  

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for January 6 through 12, 2022 were 35, 38, 31, 36,
38, 51, and 68, with a mean of 42.4. 10.7 cm flux was 93.7, 107.3,
102.4, 102.1, 102.2, 100, and 103.2, with a mean of 101.6. Estimated
planetary A indices were 2, 2, 14, 10, 6, 5, and 4, with a mean of
6.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 9, 7, 4, 3, and 3, with a
mean of 4.1.