QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6  ARLP006
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  February 8, 2019
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

Solar wind pushed geomagnetic indicators higher last week (on
February 1-2), and average planetary A index rose from 7 (for the
seven days ending January 30) to 11.6 on January 31 through February
6.

When geomagnetic conditions are active, we usually see higher
indices at high latitudes. Alaska's College A index (measured at a
magnetometer near Fairbanks) was 40 on February 1, indicating
disturbed conditions for the higher latitudes, with a great deal of
absorption rather than reflection of HF radio waves.

There were no sunspots recorded over this period, so average daily
sunspot numbers plunged from 19.6 to 0.

Average daily solar flux declined from 74.5 to 71.1.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on February 8-15, 72
on February 16-25, 71 on February 26 through March 11, and 72 on
March 12-24.

These are actually pretty good numbers for the bottom of the solar
cycle. Notice there are no predicted flux values below 70.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on February 8-10, 5 on
February 11-18, then 12, 20, 12 and 8 on February 19-22, 5 on
February 23-26, then 12 on February 27, 15 on February 28 and March
1, then 10, 8, 12 and 8 on March 2-5, 5 on March 6-17, then 12, 20,
12 and 8 on March 18-21, and 5 on March 22-24.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 8 through
March 5, 2019 from F.K. Janda. OK1HH.

'Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on February 24-26
Quiet to unsettled on February 9, 11, 14, 18, 27, March 4
Quiet to active on February 12-13, 15-17, 23, March 5
Unsettled to active on February 8, 10, 20, 22, March 1-3
Active to disturbed on February 19, 21, 28

'Solar wind will intensify on February (19,) 20-21, (22, 28), March
1-4, 6.

'Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.'

If you are using any propagation prediction program such as
W6ELprop, you will want to use the predicted smoothed sunspot number
(which as of February 4) is 8 for February and March 2019, 7 for
April and May, and 6 for June through August.

These predicted smoothed sunspot numbers are updated on the first
Monday of each month as part of the weekly reports at,
ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/ . You can find
the predicted smoothed sunspot and solar flux numbers toward the end
of each report, on pages 10 and 11 of the current issue.

Note the problematic predicted numbers which first appeared a month
ago have still not been corrected. This is probably affected by the
recent federal government shutdown.

This February 1 report is from Ken Brown, N4SO of Grand Bay, Alabama
using FT8:

'40 meters has been very good with this sampling of DX call signs:

'A45XR Oman, 9K2HQ Kuwait, A65BR United Arab Emirates, YT1TX Serbia,
FK8CB New Caledonia, YD7JLI Indonesia, TF5B Iceland, R9YM Asiatic
Russia, UA9UR Russia, TA1OSN Turkey, and E74BYZ Bosnia and
Herzegovina.

'A full list would be very long.'

Report from Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania:

'While monitoring the 11-meter citizen band on Tuesday, January 15,
2019 from 10:55 pm EST (0355 UTC Jan. 16th) I started to hear long
distance mobile stations travelling along west bound on Interstate
10 highway from Tallahassee to Pensacola, Florida via sporadic-E.

'Kind of odd for the Es to be extended up until this hour. Most of
the time it will drop out around 9:30 pm local time. Solar Flux
Index was reported at 70. The geomagnetic field was quiet.

'On Thursday, January 17 (0350 UTC January 18th) was hearing
stations from Tallahassee to Sarasota, Florida. Solar Flux Index was
reported at 69. The geomagnetic field was quiet.

'The next night there was no 11M Es heard from any direction as a
Northeast Winter polar vortex storm was moving eastward from the
Midwest that was being strengthened by the Arctic air blast from
Canada.

'On Saturday January 26 late evening I noted the Australian Jindalee
Operational Radar Network (JORN), Over-the-Horizon Backscatter Radar
(Longreach) transmitter emitting 560kW ERP in Queensland, Australia.
Could be testing their upgraded electronics, signal processing to
boost radar coverage and detection capabilities using slower scan
rates to detect smaller aircraft, ships, missile launches, low-earth
satellites passing over the Coral Sea towards the North Pacific
Ocean using digital FM-CW modulation.

'Operations were between 11 am to 12 pm Australian Eastern Standard
Time. Signal strength ranged from faint to fair. Distance was 9,872
miles. The mid-point propagation distance was 4,936 miles, which put
the ionospheric refracted footprint touching 300 plus miles
northwest from Honolulu, Hawaii along the Gray-Line path while the
solar flux rose to 77.'

The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

'This year is already off to an amazing start. We have an ongoing
solar storm that is bringing long-awaited aurora to many places in
the world. I have seen aurora field reports as far south as Germany
in Europe and Montana in the United States. In the south, aurora has
graced the skies over Tasmania and New Zealand. Although these solar
minimum storms pale by comparison to those just a few years ago, one
thing is certain. This Space Weather community is growing.'

'This storm has been reasonably weak, yet I have seen a flood of
aurora photos, along with numerous amateur radio reports, and even
several GPS questions from many new names and faces. I must say,
this is a welcome surprise-- and I have YOU to thank for it. The
word is definitely getting out!

'As for the forecast this week, we still have a sleepy Sun for the
most part. The current solar storm will slowly wane over the next
few days, which could bring us some pulsating aurora and sub-auroral
arcs (aka STEVE) before it's gone. But soon thereafter the weather
will turn quiet again. I will take this quiet time to ponder a
next-generation forecast and lean optimistically into the promise
tomorrow brings.'

Here is Dr. Skov's latest video:  https://youtu.be/bDPdyxfNWdA .

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [email protected] .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for January 31 through February 6, 2019 were 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 72.1,
70.9, 71.1, 70.7, 70.6, and 70, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated
planetary A indices were 14, 17, 17, 11, 7, 5, and 10, with a mean
of 11.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 10, 11, 8, 5, 3,
and 7, with a mean of 8.