QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7  ARLP007
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  February 14, 2020
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

There were no sunspots over this reporting week, February 6-12.
Average daily solar flux declined over one point to 71.1. Average
planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 8.3.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on February 14-21,
73 on February 22, 74 on February 23-29, 72 on March 1-3, 71 on
March 4-11, 72 on March 12-18, 73 on March 19-20, 74 on March 21-27,
and 72 on March 28-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 14-17, 8 on February
18-20, 5 on February 21-24, 10 on February 25-26, 5 on February
27-29, 8 on March 1-3, 5 on March 4-22, 10 on March 23-24, 5 on
March 25-27, and 8 on March 28-29.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 14 to March
18, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

'Geomagnetic field will be,
Quiet on: February 15-16, 20-23 
Quiet to unsettled on: February 14, 19, 24, 28, March 1-4, 7-11
Quiet to active on: February (17-18, 27, 29), March 6
Unsettled to active on: (February 25-26, March 5)
Active to disturbed: none predicted!

'Solar wind will intensify on February (14-15, 18-20, 27,) 28 (-29,)
March (3,) 4-5, (6-10,) 11.

'Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.'

Ken, N4SO writes from Alabama's Gulf Coast:

'On 17 meters and the digital mode FT8, the band is open all day to
Brazil, Argentina, Italy, Spain, Poland, and including European
Russia. (This is only a sampling of countries from the first hour,
Saturday morning on or about 1200 UTC.)

'This propagation continues all day to South America and all parts
of Europe.  These openings are every day with openings also to Japan
and to Philippines.

'17 meters is one of the best bands for Europe with continuous
signals during the day time. It is also one of the best bands for
Japan starting at about 2300 UTC. This propagation is also reliable
every day.'

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [email protected].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for February 6 through 12, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 71.3, 70.8, 72, 70.6,
70.2, 71.1, and 71.6, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated planetary A
indices were 15, 15, 6, 7, 5, 6, and 4, with a mean of 8.3. Middle
latitude A index was 13, 11, 4, 5, 4, 6, and 4, with a mean of 6.7.