QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8  ARLP008
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  February 28, 2022
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

New sunspot groups appeared on February 17, 19, 20 and 21, but solar
activity declined, even though sunspots were seen covering the sun
every day.

Average daily sunspot number declined 21 points from 75.3 last week
to 54.3 in the current reporting week, February 17-23. Average daily
solar flux was down nearly 15 points from 110.1 to 95.4. On
Thursday, February 24 the decline in sunspot numbers continued to
23, 31.3 points below the average in the previous seven days.

Average daily planetary A index went from 13 to 9.6, and average
daily middle latitude A index was off by one point to 7.3.

Predicted solar flux is 95 on February 25, 100 on February 26-27,
105 on February 28 through March 2, 110 on March 3-4, 108 on March
5-8, 105 on March 9-11, 103 on March 12-13, 100 on March 14, 98 on
March 15-16, 102 on March 17-19, 104 on March 20-22, 108 on March
23-26, 110 on March 27, 115 on March 28-29, then 112 and 110 on
March 30-31, then 108 on April 1-4.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on February 25-26, 8 on
February 27 through March 3, 10 on March 4-5, 8 on March 6, 5 on
March 7-10, then 15, 12 and 10 on March 11-13, 5 on March 14-18,
then 8, 5, 12, 18, 15 and 10 on March 19-24, 5 on March 25-29, then
12, 15, 10 and 8 on March 30 through April 2, and 5 on April 3-6.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 24, 2022 from OK1HH.

'Solar activity gradually declined to very low levels with a slight
chance of Class C flares. The solar wind speed and particle density
fluctuate irregularly. The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor
storm levels. Total solar radiation, accompanied by an irregular
occurrence of enhanced geomagnetic activity caused a subsequent
gradual decrease to overall below-average shortwave propagation
conditions. A slight improvement can be expected in connection with
seasonal changes with the approaching Spring Equinox.'

I regularly check propagation on 10-meters using FT8, low power, and
a modest full wave end fed wire antenna that is mostly indoors on
the second floor of my home.

Sometimes I will see my coverage on pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
concentrated in an area 2000-2300 miles away in Georgia and South
Carolina, which is what I saw on February 24 around 1830 UTC. 24
hours earlier I saw only two reception reports, none in the USA,
with one station down in central Mexico and the other way down in
Southern Argentina around 53 degrees south latitude. Very odd, but
this being 10-meters, soon the coverage changed and I saw coverage
across the East Coast.

Using this same modest antenna on 40 meters, where it is one quarter
wave long, at 0330 UTC on February 25 I see coverage all over the
United States, but only one station reporting my signal in Europe,
at -17 dB from IZ1CRR in JN35td.

On IZ1CRR's QRZ.com page he says he is a shortwave listener, and not
to call him on FT8 as he is listening only.

Even if you are not an FT8 operator, you could use pskreporter.info
to discover propagation paths on different bands from your local
area by searching for signals received from your grid square over
the previous 15 minutes. This assumes there are other stations in
your grid square active at the time.

In grid square CN87 in my area, there seem to be active local
stations on at all times on every band. You should probably look for
stronger signals with positive signal levels if you plan to use CW
or SSB.

Solar eruption in the news:

https://abc7.com/solar-eruption-sun-image-sunspot/11589207/

Here is an article about instability of sunspots:

https://bit.ly/3LXYEC4

Here is a blog post about recent solar events:

https://bit.ly/3t9ERHa

Details on the new Maui solar telescope:

https://bit.ly/3ImQxNb

Here is the February 21 update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/wJaV5RnIEFE

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, [email protected].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 17 through 23, 2022 were 103, 53, 51,
49, 48, 38, and 38, with a mean of 54.3. 10.7 cm flux was 96.7,
93.3, 95.7, 93.3, 97.8, 95.3, and 95.5, with a mean of 95.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 9, 13, 12, 16, and 6, with
a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, and
4, with a mean of 7.3.