QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  February 26, 2016
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP009
ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

Over the seven days of our recent reporting week (February 18-24)
average daily sunspot numbers declined from 56.7 (over the previous
seven days) to 37.9.

Average daily solar flux was down from 107.8 to 93.9. But
geomagnetic indicators were also down (generally a good thing) with
average planetary A index decreasing from 17.7 to 10.1 and average
mid-latitude A index declining from 12.6 to 7.3.

The latest prediction from USAF has solar flux at 95 on February
26-27, 90 on February 28, 85 on February 29, then 95, 100, 105 and
110 on March 1-4, 115 on March 5-7, 110 on March 8-9. 105 on March
10-13, 100 on March 14-15, 95 on March 16-19, then 100 and 105 on
March 20-21, and 110 on March 22-23. Solar flux then peaks at 115 on
March 29 through April 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 26-28, 8 on February
29, 12 on March 1, 10 on March 2, 8 on March 3-4, then 5, 15, 10 and
8 on March 5-8, 5 on March 9-10, then 8, 5 and 12 on March 11-13, 30
on March 14-16, 15 and 8 on March 17-18, then 5 on March 19-21 and 8
on March 22-26. The rest of the 45-day prediction shows planetary A
index at 30 on April 10, but that is a long way off. You can get
daily updates of both solar flux and planetary A index predictions
at 1.usa.gov/1TCBQaX usually after 2120 UTC.

OK1HH predicts quiet geomagnetic conditions on February 26, quiet to
unsettled February 27, quiet to active February 28-29, mostly quiet
March 1-2, quiet to active March 3-5, active to disturbed March 6,
quiet to active March 7, quiet to unsettled March 8-9, quiet to
active March 10, quiet on March 11-12, mostly quiet March 13, quiet
to active March 14, active to disturbed March 15-16, quiet to active
March 17, quiet March 18, mostly quiet March 19, quiet March 20,
mostly quiet March 21, quiet to unsettled March 22 and mostly quiet
March 23.

OK1HH also sees increases in solar wind on February 29 through March
3 and March 14-17, although he sees a lower probability of this on
February 29 and March 1.

Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas wrote, in a message titled 'What
a difference a year makes on ten meters.  In the 2015 ARRL DX CW
contest I worked numerous JAs, UA0, KH8, 3D2, Africa, and even a few
Europeans on 10 meters while fixed mobile (from his parked car) with
a small CB mag. mount whip from Kansas. The solar flux was 116.

2016 was a different story. Using a much better fixed mobile antenna
-- a full size 1/4 wave vertical on the roof top -- no Europeans or
JA's. Best DX was V6A and NH2DX -- both were loud -- Sunday
afternoon. Solar flux 96.

A fellow local K3PA reported good conditions on 80 meters Sunday
morning with a nice run of JAs.'

N0JK in last week's bulletin referred to a DX map which illustrated
a February 18 six meter sporadic-e opening. You can download that
map via bit.ly/1XPCVN9 .

Jim Smith, K3RTU in Pennsylvania wrote, 'Weather in Southeast
Pennsylvania has not been the best for a while so I have not been
out with my Backpack QRP as much as I would have liked. However,
Monday, February 22 was a nice day so I headed out to my favorite
state park.

I was using my KX3 with an MFJ 17 ft stainless steel whip mount
about 4 ft off the ground with several counterpoise wires. I found
17 and 15 meters to be in fairly good shape. Lots of South African
stations on both bands, but the pile ups were fierce. However, I was
able to work ZD7FT on St. Helena Island running 10 watts SSB on 15
meters.

The most amazing thing to me about this contact was that ZD7FT's
antenna was an OCFD (off-center fed dipole) and not some monster
Yagi with lots of gain. From where I was operating to ZD7FT is just
under 6,000 miles. On 17 meters I was able to work VE4DL also using
10 watts SSB.

By the way, I received a QSL from 3DA0NJ in Swaziland that same day
in the mail. I had worked him back in October from the same state
park running 10 watts SSB from my IC-703 and a Buddistick vertical
on 17 meters. From the park to Swaziland is 8200 miles.'

This weekend is the CQ World-Wide 160 Meter SSB Contest. It begins
today, February 26 at 2200 UTC and runs until Sunday, February 28 at
2200 UTC. See www.cq160.com/rules.htm for details. Conditions
should be good with low geomagnetic activity, at least for the start
of the contest.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at [email protected].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar
flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
bit.ly/1VOqf9B and bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .

Click on 'Download this file' to download the archive, and ignore
the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress
the download.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for February 18 through 24 were 35, 42, 46, 47, 29,
27, and 39, with a mean of 37.9. 10.7 cm flux was 94.9, 94, 100,
95.6, 93.7, 91, and 87.9, with a mean of 93.9. Estimated planetary A
indices were 29, 15, 6, 4, 4, 6, and 7, with a mean of 10.1.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 20, 10, 5, 3, 3, 5, and 5,
with a mean of 12.6.