QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  March 1, 2019
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP009
ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

At 2256 UTC on February 28 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning. 'The Earth is currently
under the influence of strongly elevated solar wind speed associated
with a coronal hole. A period of significant southward Bz component
could produce an isolated Minor Storm period.'
 
The Bz component refers to the interplanetary magnetic field. See:
 
https://bit.ly/1S6H68D
 
No sunspots emerged during the entire month of February. Currently
on February 28 the Earth is bathed in solar wind from a wide hole in
the Sun's atmosphere.
 
The average daily solar flux and geomagnetic indices were
practically unchanged over last week (February 21-27) compared to
the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux was 70.7 (it was
70.6 in the prior week), average daily planetary A index was
unchanged at 4.9, and average daily mid-latitude A index was 4,
virtually unchanged from 3.9 the previous week.
 
Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on March 1-8, and
71 on March 9 through April 14.
 
Predicted planetary A index is 20, 14, 10, 8, 8, 5 and 5 on March
1-7, 10, 8, 5 and 5 on March 8-11, 12 and 10 on March 12-13, 5 on
March 14-19, 10 on March 20, 5 on March 21-25, then 18, 24, 16, 12
and 8 on March 26-30, then 5, 8, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on March 31 through
April 5, 5 on April 6-7, then 12 and 10 on April 8-9, and 5 on April
10-14.
 
Here is the geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 1-27,
2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
 
'Geomagnetic field will be: 
Quiet on March 15, 23-25 
Quiet to unsettled on March 4-7, 9-10, 16, 18, 22 
Quiet to active on March 3, 8, 11-14, 17, 19-20 
Unsettled to active on March 1-2, 7, 21, 26 
Active to disturbed on March 27 
 
'Solar wind will intensify on March (1-3, 6-9,) 13-14, (15,) 21-22,
25-26
 
'Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.'
 
The latest Space Weather forecast, from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW is
located at:
 
https://youtu.be/1EKJ3d3c3bA
 
Received this from Jon Jones, N0JK:
 
'In Hawaii (Kapolei, O'ahu) this week visiting relatives. No 6 meter
propagation this week, though the KH6HI/b 50.064 MHz is 599. I had
lunch February 20 with Bert, KH6HI and Tom, NH6Y who are among the
most active 50 MHz ops in the 50th state. They are looking forward
to the Summer sporadic-E season.  Tom notes that North America seems
to have a better and more frequent path to Japan than from Hawaii on
50 MHz Es. Aloha, N0JK'
 
Here is a February 23 email from Ken Brown, N4SO of Grand Bay,
Alabama:
 
'In addition to the low bands, 10.136 MHz remains very good on the
FT8 mode.
 
'This is one example from 10:10 AM JA4FKX working 0 land stations.
(The path to Japan and Indonesia opens way before daylight). During
the night, conditions are similar to 7 MHz.
 
'161045 -13 0.3 343 - CQ NA JA4FKX PM64  Japan'
 
(Sorry, but I do not know the significance of those numbers, not
being an FT8 user yet. K7RA)
 
>From KD6JUI, who operates almost exclusively from his freshwater
kayak in Northern California:
 
'Had an exceptional day last Tuesday the 19th, 10 watts from the
kayak, got into Brazil on SSB (20m).  Also heard Spain coming in
loud and clear. QRN was higher than usual.
 
'I am still able to get enough QSOs on 17, 20 and 30m from the kayak
to keep me happy. Being on the water helps I'm sure. Lately, there's
usually QSB on 17m QSOs.
 
'Bil, KD6JUI'
 
This weekend is the ARRL International SSB DX Contest. See
www.arrl.org/arrl-dx for details.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [email protected].
 
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
 
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.
 
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.
 
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.
 
Sunspot numbers for February 21 through 27, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 71.2, 70.7, 70.5,
70.4, 70.6, and 70.7, with a mean of 70.6. Estimated planetary A
indices were 11, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, and 10, with a mean of 4.9.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, and 9, with
a mean of 3.9.