QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13  ARLP013
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 2, 2018
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP013
ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

We saw no sunspots during this reporting week, March 22-28. The
previous week had sunspots on only three days, with an average of
5.6.

Average daily solar flux receded from 69.3 to 68.2. Average daily
planetary A index dropped from 14.4 to 10.6, and average
mid-latitude A index declined from 11.3 to 8.9.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on March 30 to April 15, 69 on April 16,
68 on April 17-29, 69 on April 30, then 70 on May 1-12 and 69 on May
13.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on March 30, 5 on March 31 to
April 4, then 8 and 12 on April 5-6, 5 on April 7-9, then 8, 15 and
20 on April 10-12, 15 on April 13-15, then 8, 5 and 5 on April
16-18, then 15, 1 and 15 on April 19-21, then 18, 10 and 5 on April
22-24, then 15, 12 and 8 on April 25-27, 5 on April 28 through May
6, then 8, 15 and 20 on May 7-9, 15 on May 10-12 and 8 on May 13.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the
period March 30 to April 24, 2018.

'Geomagnetic field will be:

'Quiet on April 1-2, 4, 8-9, 24
Mostly quiet on March 30, April 5
Quiet to unsettled on March 31, April 3, 7, 16-19, 23
Quiet to active on April 6, 10-11, 13, 15, 21-22
Active to disturbed on April 12, 14, (20)

'Solar wind will intensify on March (31,) April (6-8,) 10-18, 23-25

'Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

- With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts are less
  reliable again.'

Jon Jones, N0JK sent this on March 26:

'Remarkable propagation on both 6 and 10 meters despite a SFI of
only 68.

'On March 23, 6 meters opened between North America and CE, LU.

'Ken AC4TO in Florida worked CE4WJK and CE2SV.

CE2SV 18/03/23 2242Z  50313.0 EM28 F2 FF47 CQ FT8 one decode  N0JK        
CE2SV 18/03/23 2212Z  50313.0 ft8                             LU4FPZ    
CE2SV 18/03/23 2203Z  50102.0 579 in EM70 Thanks!             AC4TO     

'I saw a spot by K0TPP for CE2SV on 50.313 MHz. I copied one decode
from CE2SV about 2240z. Probably afternoon TEP for AC4TO, possibly an Es
link from the Midwest to TEP.

'The geomagnetic field was active with the Kp to 4.

'Conditions were good in the CQ WPX SSB on 10 meters March 24.
Central and South American stations were loud to eastern Kansas
around 1930z and put 15 stations in the log with 5 watts and mobile
1/4 wave whip. Conditions not as good Sunday, though YV1KK was 20 dB
over S9 at 2000z. At 2114z CE7VPQ was very loud on 10 and I was his
contact #480.

'AC4TO heard CE again on 6 meters about the same time:

CE2SV 18/03/25 2139Z  50102.0 Heard CQ agn      AC4TO'

A report from Dr. Tamitha Skov.  This arrived just a little late for
last week's bulletin:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93FaZY4Qqho

And her latest report arrived just in time for this week's bulletin:

https://youtu.be/a79X7nM-gyw

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [email protected] .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for March 22 through 28, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.5, 68.1, 67.6, 68.3,
67.8, 68.3, and 68.6, with a mean of 69.3. Estimated planetary A
indices were 7, 17, 9, 17, 12, 9, and 3, with a mean of 14.4.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 15, 7, 15, 10, 7, and 2,
with a mean of 11.3.