QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13  ARLP013
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  March 27, 2020
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP013
ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

We saw another week with no sunspots, which were last observed just
briefly over two weeks ago on two days, March 8 and 9.
Spaceweather.com reports that so far in 2020, the percentage of days
that have no sunspots is exactly the same as all of 2019, when it
was 77%.
 
Last week we saw the spring equinox, always a good seasonal
indicator for better HF propagation.
 
Last week's bulletin ARLP012 reported the average daily solar flux
at 70.1.  This reporting week is just one point higher on average,
at 71.1.
 
Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet, with average planetary A index
at 7.7, a little higher than the previous week's average, which was
5.9.  Average mid-latitude A index was also 5.9, up from 4.1 last
week.
 
This point in the solar cycle is a great time for 160 meter
propagation because of quiet geomagnetic conditions, although as the
seasons change we no longer enjoy those long winter nights, and will
eventually see the return of summer conditions with increased
atmospheric noise.
 
Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 71 on March 27 through
April 3, 70 on April 4, 72 on April 5 to 18, 70 on April 19 through
May 1, and 72 on May 2 to 10.
 
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 27 to 29, 12 on March 30
and 31, 8 on April 1 to 3, 5 on April 4 and 5, then 10 and 8 on
April 6 and 7, 5 on April 8 to 13, then 8, 12 and 8 on April 14 to
16, 5 on April 17 to 22, then 12 and 8 on April 23 and 24, 5 on
April 25 through May 2, 10 and 8 on May 3 and 4, and 5 on May 5 to
10.
 
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 27 til April 22,
2020 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest
Group, who has been compiling this report for the past 42 years.
 
'Geomagnetic field will be: 
Quiet on:  April 10 
Quiet to unsettled on:  March 30, April 2 and 3, 7, 11 to 13, 20 
Quiet to active on: (March 27 to 29,) 31, April 1, (4 to 6, 8 and 9,
16 to 19) 
Unsettled to active on:  (April 14 and 15, 21 and 22) 
Active to disturbed:  -NONE!
  
Solar wind will intensify on: March (28 to 31), April (1 to 6,) 9,
12 and 13, (15,) 16 to 19, (20)
  
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.  
- The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no
indicators.'
  
This is probably unrelated, but I happened across this video of
OK1HH, with CW on the soundtrack:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cut9P0MYAzU
 
Chip, K7JA reports from his shack in Garden Grove, California.
 
'Hi, Tad--fun springtime stuff last night.
 
Between 0238 and 0338 UTC on March 23rd (the evening of March 22
Pacific Time, 1938-2038 local), I worked 3D2AG, VK4WDM, JR6EZE, and
KH6U on 28 MHz FT8 (!).  A number of other VK and JA stations were
heard at the same time.  3D2AG was loud enough to have been a solid
almost-local-sounding QSO on FM.
 
In the same time frame, but extending later in the evening (until
0410 UTC or 9:10 PM local), 15 meters was alive with Asian and
Pacific stations including Hong Kong, China, Japan, Indonesia, and
even JD1BHA on Ogasawara Island.
 
20 meters was open to the Pacific and South America until almost
midnight local time.
 
It's fun to catch these little 'tidbit' openings; they give hope for
better propagation ahead!
 
Hope all is well--stay away from the corona bugs!'
 
Corona Bugs!  Weren't they a brand of semi-automatic keys?
 
https://binged.it/2Jix2Zl
 
The latest from Space Weather Woman, WX6SWW, who sees evidence that
our Sun continues to wake up:
 
https://youtu.be/zJv8fQFb4-g
 
Upcoming, this weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX Contest, SSB
weekend.  See https://cqwpx.com/
 
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [email protected].
 
For more information concerning radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
 
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.
 
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.
 
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.
 
Sunspot numbers for March 19 through 25, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 71.7, 70.8, 70.2,
70.4, 71.2, and 71.2, with a mean of 71.1.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 12, 7, 8, 7, 12, 4, and 4, with a mean of 7.7.  Middle
latitude A index was 7, 5, 5, 7, 10, 4, and 3, with a mean of 5.9.