QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17  ARLP017
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 26, 2019
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP017
ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

Following a good two-week run, sunspots disappeared after April 20.
Average daily sunspot numbers for the recent reporting week were
8.1, down from 14 reported in last week's bulletin, and average
daily solar flux was 70.6, down from 76.4. Daily planetary and
mid-latitude A index were nearly the same this week, with the
average planetary A index at 4.7 and middle latitude A index at 4.6.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 69 on April 26-30, then
70 on May 1-2, 72 on May 3, 76 on May 4-5, 77 on May 6, 78 on May
7-16, 76 and 72 on May 17-18, 69 on May 19-29, then 72, 76, 76 and
77 on May 30 through June 2, and 78 on June 3-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 5 and 10 on April 26-28, 5 on
April 29 through May 1, then 15, 10, 5, 10, 12 and 14 on May 2-7, 8
on May 8-10, 5 on May 11-19, 8 on May 20-22, then 5, 12, 8 and 5 on
May 23-26, then 10, 14, 12, 8 and 5 on May 27-31, then 10, 12 and 14
on June 1-3, 8 on June 4-6, and 5 on June 7-9.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 26-May 20, 2019
from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

'Geomagnetic field will be:

'Quiet on April 28, May 11, 13-14, 16, 18-19
Quiet to unsettled on April 26, May 3-4, 8-9, 12, 15, 17
Quiet to active on April 30, May 1-2, 10, 20
Unsettled to active on April 27, 29, May 5-7

'Solar wind will intensify on May 3-5, 9-13, 15, (20).

'Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.'

On April 22, Tom Scott, N5GIT in San Antonio wrote:

'Just bagged my first 2 meter SSB contact with Florida!  Big opening
today.

'100 watts and a k5vh 3 ring halo up 28 feet tied to a second story
balcony.

'It's only been 25 years that I've been looking forward to this
moment.'

Dr. Tamitha Skov's latest video can be found at:

https://youtu.be/W9Fp-O3Ddlo

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [email protected].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for April 18 through 24, 2019 were 23, 23, 11, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 8.1. 10.7 cm flux was 74.6, 72.7, 69.9,
69.3, 69.4, 68.8, and 69.3, with a mean of 70.6. Estimated planetary
A indices were 2, 4, 4, 4, 4, 8, and 7, with a mean of 4.7. Middle
latitude A index was 2, 4, 4, 4, 4, 8, and 6, with a mean of 4.6.