QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19  ARLP019
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  May 10, 2019
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

We saw 0 sunspots from April 21 through May 2, but on May 3 sunspots
returned. Average daily sunspot number rose from 0 last week to 16.1
this week, and average daily solar flux increased as well, from 67.5
to 73.5.

Both the average middle latitude and planetary A index this week
were 6.6, and last week those numbers were 4.7 and 5.9 respectively.

Predicted solar flux is 75 on May 10-11, 73 on May 12-15, 74 and 76
on May 16-17, 72 on May 18-20, 68 on May 21-22, 67 on May 23-26,
then 69, 68, 69, 70 and 72 on May 27-31, 75 on June 1, 76 on June
2-13, 72 on June 14-16, 68 on June 17-18, 67 on June 19-22 and 69 on
June 23.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 10, 14 and 12 on May 11-12,
5 on May 13-19, 8 on May 20, 5 on May 21-27, then 10, 12, 8 and 10
on May 28-31, then 5, 12 and 14 on June 1-3, 8 on June 4-6, 5 on
June 7-15, 8 on June 16, and 5 on June 17-23.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 10 to June 5, 2019
from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

'Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on May 10, 18-19, 22-23, 26-27
Quiet to unsettled on May 13-17, 21, 24-25, June 1-5
Quiet to active on May 11-12, 30
Unsettled to active on May 20, 28-29, 31
Active to disturbed-none

'Solar wind will intensify on May (10,) 11-12, 14, (20,) 21-23,
29-31, June 1.

'Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.'

Jeff, N8II in West Virginia wrote on May 4:

'We are in a bit of a funk waiting for sporadic-E to improve.

'Starting around 1900Z last Saturday and Sunday April 27-28, 20
meters began closing to north Florida in the FL QSO Party and was
completely closed by 2200Z. Then some sporadic-E appeared and 20 was
open to most of FL from around 2345Z-0145Z. On 40, there was no skip
zone, so the callers from everywhere drowned out the FL mobiles they
were calling.

'Due to the higher MUF, the mobiles were also weaker than normal on
40 Saturday evening, but fixed stations were still pretty loud.

Today, May 4, is the 7th call area QSO Party. 20 did not open well
until about 1415Z and signals were good until around 1700Z after
which they were much weaker and absolutely nothing was heard on 15,
worst ever 7th call area QSO Party conditions that I can remember.

'Most evenings around 2100-2300Z, 20 meters is wide open to southern
EU (many S9+ signals) despite the low SFI, but all DX signals are
pretty weak by 1300Z almost every morning.'

The latest videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, the Space Weather Woman,
WX6SWW:

https://bit.ly/2LxWPkc

https://bit.ly/304HRp7

Steve Justus, W4SAJ lives in Central Florida and was on 10 meters
last Saturday (May 4) running FT8 mode at 100 watts and beaming
toward Australia with a 4 element mono-band beam. He was called by a
station in Beijing, and is curious about the possible propagation
mode, since Steve was not beaming in that direction. But FT8 is so
efficient with decoding weak signals that this contact does not
surprise me, although the signal strength may have surprised Steve.

Mike Schaeffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania wrote Thursday, May
9:

'This evening, while monitoring CB channel 29 (27.285 MHz) AM mode
between 0020-0203 UTC, May 10, while the MUF reached 74 MHz over
Maidenhead grid square EM53 (Starkville, MS), with the solar flux
being 76, the following state stations were heard: (AL, FL, GA, IL,
IN, KY, MN, NC, OH, TN, WV). 0020 UTC is 14 minutes after local
sunset, 8:06 pm EDT.

'According to NOAA solar wind prediction models, the Earth is going
to get slammed with a solar storm on May 11 at 1000 UTC. Expect
noisy propagation conditions on the high frequency bands.'

This just in, via WW1ME, VE7DXW and AF7TI:

Go to:

https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/realtime/PA836_foF2.png

This shows you recent foF2 readings from Point Arguello in Southern
California.

foF2 is the highest frequency reflected vertically from the
ionosphere using an ionosonde.

Here is a list of ionosondes:

metrics.af7ti.com/

You can check data from other locations by plugging the station code
(such as BC840 for Boulder, Colorado) into the Point Arguello URL
(replacing PA836), like this:

https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/realtime/BC840_foF2.png

I only know definitions of a few of the parameters listed, such as
foF2 and TEC (Total Electron Content).

I hope to have more info on these tools next week.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [email protected].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for May 2 through 8, 2019 were 0, 11, 12, 14, 25,
27, and 24, with a mean of 16.1. 10.7 cm flux was 69.2, 69.8, 72.3,
73.5, 76, 78.7, and 75.3, with a mean of 73.5. Estimated planetary A
indices were 12, 7, 10, 4, 5, 5, and 3, with a mean of 6.6. Middle
latitude A index was 13, 8, 9, 4, 5, 5, and 2, with a mean of 6.6.