QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19  ARLP019
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  May 12, 2023
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

We saw a modest increase in solar activity in this reporting week,
May 4-10.
 
Average daily sunspot numbers nudged up from 114 to 119.3, and
average daily solar flux from 151.5 to 167.1
 
Average daily planetary A index changed from 13.6 to 15.1, and
average middle latitude A index remained the same, 11.9.
 
Predicted solar flux is 160 on May 12-13, then 155, 150 and 150 on
May 14-16, 145 on May 17-18, 155 on May 19-21, 150 on May 22, 145 on
May 23-25, then 140 and 145 on May 26-27, 155 on May 29-30, 160 on
May 31 through June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165,
160, 150, 145 and 150 on June 8-12, and 155 on June 13-17.
 
Predicted planetary A index is 30, 12 and 8 on May 12-14, 5 on May
15-22, then 12 and 20 on May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 10 on May
27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May 30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and
12 on June 2-5, 8 on June 6-8, and 5 on June 9- 18, then 12 and 20
on June 19-20.
 
Stormy space weather:
 
https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge
 
BBC on viewing aurora:
 
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/
 
More:
 
https://bit.ly/44Rruxk
 
Jon, N0JK wrote on May 9:
 
'Good 6 Meter Es, TEP May 7 FT8 from northeast Kansas.
 
I worked CX2AQ and LU5FF from home with an attic dipole on FT8. This
around 2115 UTC. Not strong, but solid contacts. I then set up
portable.
 
Worked CE2SV and CE3SX. CE3SX called me, also FT8. Had difficulty
keeping yagi up due to gusty winds. On ON4KST Dale, CE2SV noted:
 
00:11:46 N0JK Jon, A struggle on my side, wind blew antenna down
several times and broke director. Duct tape to the rescue.
 
00:11:07 N0JK Jon (CE2SV) Dale - Thank you for the contact.
 
22:42:46 CE2SV Dale (N0JK) Finally Jon ... TU 
 
Gary, N0KQY observes there is a 'consistent time frame' for Es --
TEP to South America from the Midwest. Best seems to be 2000-0000
UTC.'
  
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere May 12-18, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
 
'The more vivid and complex solar activity is, the less predictable
it is. The same is valid for its effects in the Earth's
magnetosphere and ionosphere.
 
This was particularly true of the solar flares of May 4 and 5, and
also of the G2 class geomagnetic storm with auroras. The CMEs
overlapping each other were difficult to separate.
 
Another CME that struck the Earth on May 7 (1544 UTC) was expected
but, contrary to predictions, did not cause a significant storm.
Another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) hit the Earth on May 9 at 2310
UTC.
 
Shortly before, AR3296 (with reversed magnetic polarity and thus
violating Hale's law) released a double solar flare.
 
The consequence was the Dellinger effect (a shortwave fade) up to 25
MHz from 1900-2100 UTC. Another CME followed with a velocity of over
1,000 km/s (2.24 million mph). Shock waves at its leading edge
accelerated protons to nearly the speed of light, making them
'relativistic particles', for which time passes more slowly. They
can reach the Earth and affect the ionosphere.
 
These lines are written on the afternoon of 11 May UTC, when the
particles from the eruption of 9 May with a maximum at 1858 UTC are
expected to arrive.
 
Large AR3296 and AR3297 will set behind the northwestern edge of the
solar disc in a few days. In the meantime, AR3301 and AR3302 emerged
in the northeast.
 
Helioseismological observations indicate another large sunspot group
will follow them out. Therefore, the current variable nature of the
evolution with numerous disturbances will continue.'
 
Five days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:
 
https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q
 
Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
[email protected]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.
 
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals .  For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .
 
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/ .
 
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins .
 
Sunspot numbers for May 4 through 10, 2023 were 139, 90, 99, 99,
103, 151, and 154, with a mean of 119.3. 10.7 cm flux was 162,
161.9, 151.8, 157.2, 171.9, 194.7, and 170.1, with a mean of 167.1.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 30, 9, 16, 14, and 26, with
a mean of 15.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 21, 8, 13, 11, and
19, with a mean of 11.9.