QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24  ARLP024
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 12, 2020
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspots made a solid reappearance over this reporting week (June 4
to 10) with average daily sunspot number rising from 3.3 to 14.  As
expected, solar flux also increased, and the average daily 10.7 cm
solar flux rose from 69.6 to 71.3.

With renewed solar activity, so many radio amateurs staying home,
and the increasing popularity of new weak signal modes, there is a
lot happening on the air in amateur radio today.

Average daily planetary A index went from 6 to 5.1, while average
daily middle latitude A index changed from 5.7 to 6.1.

The outlook for the next 45 days has solar flux at 72 on June 12 to
14, 70 on June 15 and 16, 68 on June 17 to 24, 70 on June 25 and 26,
72 on June 27 through July 11, 70 on July 12 and 13, 68 on July 14
to 21, 70 on July 22 and 23, and 72 on July 24 to 26.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 12 through July 3, then 8
and 12 on July 4 and 5, and 5 on July 6 to 26.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 12 to July 7, 2020
from OK1HH.

'Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: June 16, 20, 23 to 25, July 1 to 4
Quiet to unsettled on: June 12 to 14, 17 to 19, 21 to 22, 28 to 30,
July 6
Quiet to active on: (June 15, 26 and 27, July 5, 7)
Unsettled to active on: nothing predicted
Active to disturbed: nothing predicted

Solar wind will intensify on: June (16 and 17, 26 to 30,) July 5 to 7

Remarks:  
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains lower as there are very few
indications.'

KD6JUI reports, 'Saturday, June 6, was a good day for operating with
10 watts and a short vertical dipole from a small pedal boat on Pine
Mountain Lake in northern California.  Around 2 pm local time I
heard an Argentina CW station coming in loud and clear on 15 meters,
then was able to work JR7TKG using SSB on 17 meters.  Quite
amazing.'

A new solar cycle prediction method, the Sun Clock.

https://bit.ly/2AlwjWy

KZ1W reported 6 meter openings to an email list for the Western
Washington DX Club on June 10, 'Terrific opening to New England this
afternoon. Only missed Rhode Island. N7QT was hammering them also.
No DX, but this was great.'

Joe, KC8RAN reported from Waxahachie, Texas, also on June 10,
'Normally I don't work 6M, but decided to check it out today.  On
WSJT-X there were a few stations on around 1530Z, so I gave it a
whirl.  I was able to make contact with VE3OTL with reasonable
reports of -08db (his) and -09db (mine), just before the band closed
on my end.  Going from EM12 just south of Dallas, Texas to EN76 in
Canada (around 1150 miles) was quite a surprise, considering I was
using my G5RV Jr antenna as an inverted U 25 ft high in the attic.
While I was unable to complete the contact with N2CB in nearby EN75,
it was nice to see I can do the magic band.  Time to build that 6M
antenna.'

Rich Zwirko, K1HTV reported on June 8:

'In the past 2 days the 6M band has shown us in the Mid-Atlantic
area some more magic.  On Sunday, June 7 there were two multi-hour
50 MHz DX openings from Europe and the islands off of Western Africa
to the western edge of the FM18ap QTH in Virginia.  The first
opening ran from 1525Z to 1830Z with FT8 mode stations worked on 6M
by K1HTV in CT3, DL, EA, EA8, EI, F, G, I, ON and PA.

Joe Taylor, K1JT reported on the WSJT-X Development Group reflector
that on June 7, in just 44 minutes, using the FT4 mode, he made 39
DX QSOs using the FT4 mode on 50.318 MHz.

The second opening on June 7 into this area ran from 2045 to 2345Z.
During this session, FT8 stations in CT, EA, EI, F, G, GW, IS0 and
PA were worked.  The countries best represented in the June 7 log
were Spain (15), France (13), UK (8) and Canary Islands (7). A total
67 FT8 DX QSOs were logged on Sunday, June 7.  Most were made on
50.313 MHz.

I went down to the shack early Monday, June 8, after seeing spots
for European stations from some W3 land stations located about 100
miles northeast of my FM18 QTH.  I began seeing weak decodes before
1100Z. Between 1100 and 1200Z I worked 8 stations in YU, LZ and 9A.
At the start of the 1200Z hour I added FT8 QSOs with G, SV, HA.  The
first of two exciting moments came when I called and worked TA1BM in
Turkey for my 6M DXCC country 162.

The second big surprise occurred at 1314z when I completed an FT8
QSO with  OD5KU in Lebanon for 6M country 163.

As I write this email near the end of the June 8 UTC day, 51 DX
stations in 20 countries have been worked today, including 9A, CN,
CU, EA, EA6, EA8, EA9, G, GU, HA, I, J7, LZ, OD, SV, TA, VE, YO, YU
and I even worked a KB3 who answered my 'CQ DX' call from far away
Maryland, USA.  36 of the 51 FT8 QSOs were on 50.313 MHz.  15 FT8
QSOs were on 50.323 MHz.  I heard no activity on the 50.318 FT
frequency.

That's it for Sunday and today.  I wonder what the Magic Band will
serve up next.  I hope that in the days and weeks to come, DX
propagation that we in the eastern States have been experiencing
will soon be experienced by stations farther west in the country.'
 
Dick, K2KA reported from Westford, Massachusetts on June 8:

'Today from 1000z to now (1924z) 6M 'the Super Magic Band' has been
open to EU, AF, and Caribbean from here FN42.

With my bent M2 6M5XHP (from a Tornado on May 15) at 40 ft.  I
worked 4 new countries (ZB2GI, Z32KF, TA1BM and J35X) and printed 5
more (OD5KU and ET, 6W1TA, 4X4DK, A92HK, 5B60AIF).  At 1916z worked
J35X.

This is the longest I have ever seen the 'Super Magic Band' open.'

For more information concerning radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information 
Service at arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for June 4 through 10, 2020 were 12, 13, 15, 16, 17,
14, and 11, with a mean of 14.  10.7 cm flux was 70.1, 71.1, 71.6,
71.6, 71, 72.4, and 71, with a mean of 71.3.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 4, 4, 3, 9, 4, 5, and 7, with a mean of 5.1.  Middle
latitude A index was 5, 4, 2, 10, 6, 5, and 11, with a mean of 6.1.