QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24  ARLP024
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 17, 2022
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity increased this week, which we were happy to see, with
average daily sunspot number rising from 44.4 last week to 74.3
during this reporting week, June 9-15. Sunspot numbers rose all
week, starting at 17 on Thursday, June 9 to 149 on Wednesday, June
15.

Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux increased from 99.4 to 123.9. Solar
flux peaked at 145.5 on Tuesday, June 14, but then on Thursday the
noon daily reading at the Penticton observatory was 146.7, an
increase from 140 the day before. Also on Thursday, daily sunspot
number increased from 149 on Wednesday to 159.

The Penticton observatory does three daily readings of solar flux,
but it is the local noon reading that is the official solar flux
reading of the day, and the one we report here.

You can see the readings at https://bit.ly/3b5OBNk .

The solar flux outlook appears promising for the next few days. The
June 16, 2022 forecast from the USAF Space Weather Squadron shows
solar flux at 146 on June 17-18, then 144, 140, and 138 on June
19-21, 136 on June 22-24, 100 on June 25 through July 5, then 105,
110 and 115 on July 6-8, 120 on July 9-11, 125 on July 12-16, 120 on
July 17-18, 110 on July 19 and 100 on July 20-31.

Predicted planetary A index, a measure of geomagnetic stability, is
8 on June 17-18, 5 on June 19-24, then 10, and 8 on June 25-26, 5 on
June 27 through July 7, 8 on July 8-10, then 5, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on
July 11-15, then 5 on July 16-19, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on July
20-23, and 5 through the end of the month.

You can find daily updates for predicted solar flux and A index at
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt . Updates
are posted every afternoon, North America time.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

'Solar activity grew. The most significant phenomenon was observed
in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk - a long-duration (LDE)
M3/1n solar flare, observed at 0407 UTC on June 13, accompanied by
type-II and IV radio emissions and radio bursts.

'The associated CME was visible off the east. The arrival of the
ejected cloud of particles on Earth was calculated to the afternoon
of June 15.

'Interplanetary magnetic field strength increased at 0400 UTC on
June 15. Solar wind speed was about 500 km/s until shock arrival,
when it escalated to 550 km/s and eventually peaked at 624 km/s at
0556 UTC.  The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with an
escalation to G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 1200-1500 UTC in
reaction to CME effects.

'The MUF increase caused by the storm was registered on June 15 at
two intervals, first after 0600 UTC and second before 1200 UTC. In
the afternoon to evening a decrease in MUF followed, an increase in
the decline and an overall worsening.

'Solar activity will remain elevated for several days, which will
help conditions return to above average levels. However, in the
Earth's northern hemisphere, sporadic-E layer will cause very
irregular development, from increased attenuation to more frequent
opening of the shortest shortwave bands.'

Here are some solar flare updates:

https://bit.ly/3xvycJO

https://bit.ly/3O0re6B

Thanks to K5EM of the Western Washington DX Club for this study of
sporadic-E:

https://bit.ly/39zqIxk

Here is some information about the Maunder Minimum:

https://bit.ly/3QubESn

Go to https://www.spaceweather.com and look for an article that
appeared June 15-16 titled 'Mapping a Magnetic Superstorm.'

Look for this fascinating map:
https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/12jun22/resistivity.jpg .

It purports to show which areas are more vulnerable to effects from
geomagnetic storms due to variations in ground and infrastructure
conductivity.

Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, a favorite operating activity for
many of us. The current outlook shows modest solar flux and perhaps
slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. Predicted solar flux for
June 24-26 is 136, 100 and 100, with planetary A index at 5, 10 and
8. Field Day starts on Saturday, but it is worth looking at
predictions for Friday.

Look for an update in next week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin
ARLP025. Field Day rules are at, www.arrl.org/field-day .

A few days ago, Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted this:

https://youtu.be/pv4QmVfz95A

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, [email protected].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for June 9 through 15, 2022 were 17, 33, 41, 63, 96,
121, and 149, with a mean of 74.3. 10.7 cm flux was 106.4, 110.5,
112.1, 121.3, 131.5, 145.5, and 140, with a mean of 123.9. Estimated
planetary A indices were 5, 5, 8, 9, 13, 8, and 20, with a mean of
9.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 10, 12, 14, 10, and 18, with
a mean of 10.9.