QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27  ARLP027
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  July 6, 2015
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP027
ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

Conditions over Field Day weekend turned out to be not bad at all.
The expected geomagnetic upset never happened.  On June 25 and 26,
the Thursday and Friday before Field Day, the predicted planetary A
index for the June 27 and 28 was 45 and 60, really bad conditions.
The actual planetary A index on those dates was 9 and 13, and the
mid-latitude A index was 8 and 12, nice moderate numbers.
 
Average solar flux over June 25 through July 1 was 100.7, down from
130.8 over the previous seven days.  Average daily sunspot numbers
declined from 71.6 to 35.9.
 
There were no new sunspots on June 17 to 21, one new spot on June
22, none on June 23 to 27, two new sunspots on June 28, a new
sunspot on June 29 and again on June 30, and two new sunspots on
July 2.  On July 1 there were 3 numbered sunspot groups and 5 on
July 2.  NOAA/USAF predicts geomagnetic activity at quiet levels on
July 3, quiet to unsettled July 4 and unsettled to minor storm
levels on July 5.
 
The latest solar flux prediction has 115 on July 3 to 5, 120 on July
6 to 9, 125 on July 10, 130 on July 11 to 19, then 115, 110 and 105
on July 20 to 22, 100 on July 23 to 26, 105 on July 27 through
August 1, then flux values rise to 130 after August 6.
 
Planetary A index is predicted at 5, 8, 25, 15, and 8 on July 3 to
7, then 5 on July 8 to 10, then 18, 12 and 8 on July 11 to 13, then
5 on July 14 to 17, 8 on July 18 and 19, 5 on July 20 to 25, 8 on
July 26, 5 on July 27 through August 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on August
2 to 4 and 8 on August 5 and 6.
 
Franz Janda, OK1HH, predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to
unsettled July 3 and 4, active to disturbed July 5, quiet to active
July 6, quiet to unsettled July 7, mostly quiet July 8 to 10, quiet
to active July 11 and 12, quiet to unsettled July 13 and 14, quiet
on July 15, mostly quiet July 16 and 17, quiet to unsettled July 18,
quiet to active July 19, quiet to unsettled July 20 and 21, quiet
July 22 and 23, and mostly quiet July 24 and 25.  Franz expects
increases in solar wind on July 5 and 6, July 10 to 12 and July 20
to 25.
 
Dave Olean, K1WHS of Lebanon, Maine wrote 'I missed the big aurora
in the early evening on Monday night June 23.  I knew it was
happening, but had company and could not break away.  I finally did
get away just about 0100 UT and there was six meter Es and shortly
afterwards, I started hearing auroral buzz on several stations.'

Later he wrote, 'I worked all sorts of 50 MHz aurora out into the
far Midwest on June 22-23 aurora.  In between the auroral buzz, I
could also work several stations via 50 MHz auroral E out to the
Seattle area with K7EK in CM97.
 
I also worked VE5UF and VE6EME via auroral Es.  It was interesting
to look at the signals on my panadaptor.  You could pick out the
auroral Es signals from the plain auroral signals by their width on
the screen!  Later on, around 0500z, I tried really hard to work two
KL7s, but alas, they could not hear me.  I definitely heard them
very weakly and with an auroral Es note, but I guess the path
geometry was less than optimum.  They could not pull me out.  The W7
and VE auroral Es was 5x9!
 
One interesting contact on 50 MHz was an auroral sounding QSO with
N5DG near Houston, Texas.  I have never worked that far via the buzz
route.  Ed, N5DG said he also copied me with a raspy auroral note as
well.  Just before midnight, signals started to appear on 144 MHz.
I had missed the earlier session, so was anxious to see if the
aurora would come back later.  It did, and I worked a few stations
on 144 MHz for about half an hour.  I had to retrain myself in
auroral techniques as it has been a long time for me since there was
a good aurora on 144.  My quad Yagi array was too sharp, and I was
constantly turning the beam to peak signals.
 
I worked N4QWZ in Tennessee with 59+ signals.  He was barely audible
when I first heard him with my beam at 320 degrees.  K1HTV in FM18
was worked early on with weak signals too at 0355Z, but later I
peaked him up to 59+ by turning the beam more to the west.  Some of
my beam headings were as far south as 285 degrees!  That is almost
due west!  I also worked several stations out in the Chicago area
and Wisconsin, but I am afraid that the activity level was low due
to it being a late week night.  Chicago peaked at 308 degrees.

After 144 MHz died around 0430, I went back to 50 MHz looking for
more Auroral Es.  The KL7s were heard after 0500Z.  I hung around
until 0700 looking for more DX to KL7, but nothing materialized.'
 
Check out the pictures on Dave's listing at QRZ.com, especially his
stack of antennas.

Rich Zwirko, of Amissville, Virginia (who K1WHS mentioned) reports:
'June 29, the day after the ARRL Field Day, produced some
interesting Es openings on 50 MHz.  The day started with UT1FG/MM
pounding into my FM18ap QTH from water grid FM92.  He was in the
K1HTV log at 1250Z.  Less than 10 minutes later I worked Yuri again
as he passed into another new grid, GM02.  Six meter regular CT1HZE
was worked at 1848Z, followed by C6AUX and CN8KD a few minutes
later.  UT1FG/MM was worked in yet another new grid, GM03, at 1913Z.
At 2007Z I worked EA9IB in IM85, not having worked Pedro on 6 meters
for over 15 years.  Back in 1993 the K1HTV contact with EH9IB (the
call he was assigned back then) was the first ever USA to EA9 QSO on
record on 50 MHz.
 
As June 29 progressed, at 2116Z UT1FG/MM was worked again, now in
grid GM13, the 4th new grid for me today on the Magic Band.  In the
last hour of the UTC day other DX stations worked included PJ5A,
J69MD, VP2ETE and J69DS.
 
UTC June 30 started off with a bang.  With the MUF over 150 MHz just
SW of my FM18ap QTH, 2 meter stations northeast of me in W1, W2 and
W3 land were working into a number of southern states.  A cloud over
northeast Tennessee produced enough ionization for my only 144 MHz
Es QSO when I worked WA4ZZW in EM64 in Alabama.'
 
David Moore sent this link, to a piece about a spectral slicing
satellite revealing the anatomy of a solar flare:
https://shar.es/1qwz6G .
 
Jon Jones, N0JK wrote: 'I worked C6AUX at 1509z and PJ5A at 1921z on
50 MHz June 28 from the Kansas City Veterans Administration Parking
lot.  This was via sporadic E.  C6AUX was loud at times, PJ5A not as
strong.'

Jon says he works at the VA hospital part time in the Emergency
Department, and when he wasn't busy on Sunday he took some time to
get on six meters.  The area he operated from has a clear shot to
the Southeast across the Blue River Valley.  He pressed a 5/8 wave 2
meter antenna into 50 MHz service, where it operates as a 1/4 wave
vertical.  You can see a picture at bit.ly/1C64dbx .  (This
link does not work for me with Internet Explorer, but only Firefox
for some reason).
 
Jon also wrote, 'KI0I also worked C6AUX while mobile June 28 from
EM28 on 6.  He used a homemade J-Pole fishing rod antenna on his
truck.  He also logged 6Y5WJ.'
 
On July 2 Jon wrote: 'June 30 and July 1 - JW7QIA Svalbard made
numerous contacts on 6 meters to North America.  He worked C6AUX for
the first Bahamas to Svalbard 50 MHz contact.
 
Svalbard is near the North Pole and not in the mid-latitude Es zone.
What is the propagation mechanism to North America?  Perhaps Aurora
Es on to mid-latitude sporadic Es.'
 
This just in:  The World Data Center Sunspot Index and Long Term
Solar Observations from the Royal University of Belgium has finally
transitioned to a new International Sunspot Number system, and has
completed extensive revisions to the sunspot record, going back
centuries.
 
You can read about it here:
 
www.sidc.be/
 
www.sidc.be/press/01/welcome.html
 
www.sidc.be/silso/taxonomy/term/1
 
www.sidc.be/silso/news008
 
The numbers used in this bulletin are the Boulder sunspot numbers,
and will not be affected.
 
And finally, at the end of June it is time to look at our 3-month
moving average of daily (Boulder) sunspot numbers.  The latest data
is centered on May 2015, and includes all daily sunspot numbers from
April 1 through June 30.  The numbers for January through May 2015
are 98.2, 78.1, 68.2, 72.4 and 77.7.  The cycle peaked during the
periods centered on February and March 2014 when the moving averages
were 146.4 and 148.2.  The data centered on February 2014 included
all daily sunspot numbers from January 1 through March 31.  The
average centered on March 2014 included all daily sunspot numbers
from February 1 through April 30.  This shifting 3-month average
smooths the numbers, making it easier to identify shifts in the
solar cycle.
 
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
the numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of
past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.
 
Archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and
planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
bit.ly/1IBXtnG and bit.ly/1KQGbRm .
 
Click on 'Download this file' to download the archive and ignore the
security warning about file format.  Pop-up blockers may suppress
download.  I've had better luck with Firefox than IE.
 
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.
 
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.
 
Sunspot numbers for June 25 through July 1 were 33, 28, 25, 39, 36,
41, and 49, with a mean of 35.9.  10.7 cm flux was 101.8, 101.2,
97.3, 97.3, 97.1, 100.8, and 109.6, with a mean of 100.7.  Estimated
planetary A indices were 33, 10, 9, 13, 6, 6, and 5, with a mean of
11.7.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 19, 9, 8, 12, 6, 8, and
6, with a mean of 9.7.