QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29  ARLP029
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  July 17, 2020
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP029
ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

It turns out last week's bulletin ARLP028 did not get posted to the
ARRL web site and did not go out via the usual channels.  If you
need a copy, check the bulletin archive link given at the end of
this bulletin (perhaps tomorrow), or email a request to the author,
[email protected].
 
Over the past week, July 9 to 15, just one day had sunspot activity,
and that was July 10 when the daily sunspot number was 12.  The
sunspot was number 2766, returning for a second appearance from old
cycle 24.
 
On July 16 Spaceweather.com reported 'a tiny proto-sunspot'
exhibiting polarity indicating cycle 25.  But later it seemed to be
gone, and every time I thought I'd spotted something, it turned out
to be dirt on my computer screen.
 
>From the previous week to this week, average daily sunspot number
declined from 3.3 to 1.7, but average daily solar flux stayed the
same, at 68.5.
 
Predicted solar flux remains low, further evidence of this long,
deep solar minimum.  All flux values for the next 45 days are
predicted to stay below 70.  69 is the predicted 10.7 cm solar flux
on July 17 to 22, 68 on July 23 and 24, 69 on July 25 through August
1, 68 again on August 2 to 20, 69 on August 21 to 28 and 68 on
August 29 and 30.
 
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 17 to 30, then 8 and 10 on
July 31 through August 1, 5 on August 2 to 8, 8 on August 9 and 10,
5 on August 11 to 26, 8 on August 27 and 28, and 5 on August 29 and
30.
 
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 17 til August 12,
2020 from OK1HH.
 
'Geomagnetic field will be 
Quiet on:  July 17 to 21, 25 and 26, 28 and 29, August 4 to 7 
Quiet to unsettled on:  July 24, 27, 30, August 1 to 3, 10 to 12 
Quiet to active on: (July 22 and 23, 31, August 8 and 9) 
Unsettled to active on:  nothing predicted 
Active to disturbed:  nothing predicted 
 
Solar wind will intensify on:  July (17 and 18, 21 and 22) 23 to 25,
(26 and 27,) August 1 to 3 (4)
 
Remarks: 
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains in the long run lower as
there are very few indications.'
 
George Hall, N2CG reported, 'I'm located in Northern New Jersey
(FN20wv) and on July 11th starting around 8 AM EDT (1200Z) and for
the next eleven hours the 6m band on FT8 mode was open to five
continents.
 
All parts of Europe were coming in for over 10 hours and I managed
to work 11 different DXCC entities, including JW7QIA in Svalbard for
an ATNO.
 
In Africa the Canary Islands were coming in and there were a few
Caribbean stations as well as many areas of the US and parts of
northern South America workable with strong signals.
 
At 2200Z I had to go QRT due to an approaching thunderstorm.  When I
returned to the air at 2240Z in just a few minutes the HamSpots DX
cluster was showing I had spotted over a dozen JA stations on 6m
FT8!  For the next 25 minutes I managed to work six Japanese
stations, with received signals ranging from -06 to -18 dBm.  So,
working Japan not only gave me an ATNO, it also gave me Asia; the
last continent I needed for 6m WAC which I'll be able to apply for
when I receive a paper QSL card from one of the JA stations.
 
So lets hope the remaining weeks of this Summer 6m Es Season will
bring more DX supersizes.'
 
Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW of Easton, Pennsylvania wrote:
 
'On Sunday July 12, 1 pm local (1700 UTC) heard and worked Elye,
KI5DLL from Malvern, Arkansas (95 miles away from the Texas state
line in Texarkana) at a distance of 1,057 miles.  Initially his
signal report was 1x1, but later rose to 3x3.
 
On Thursday, July 14, 11 local (1500 UTC) heard Mark, KI4SWB from
Melbourne Beach, Florida at a distance of 924 miles.  His signal
report was 4x7, peaking +30 db with deep QSB.
 
Both receptions were on the 10 meter FM simplex frequency of 29.600
MHz.
 
Considering operators on the lower segment 10 meter band (28 MHz)
are having a rough time making DX contacts using SSB (J3E) - 3KHz
bandwidth, which is four times narrower compared to FM (F3E) - 11.25
KHz bandwidth, so it is somewhat amazing that we are starting to
hear these type of emissions.
 
Plus, keeping in mind that we are slowly exiting out of Solar Cycle
24, which was reported to be a deep century-class lull in solar
activity.
 
I urge everyone to continue monitoring 29.600 FM simplex.  Even if
the frequency sounds closed, give a call out, you might be
pleasantly surprised with an unexpected DX reply.'
 
Mike sent an update on July 16:
 
'Today, at 11:53 am local (1553 UTC) heard Lloyd, KC5FM from
Newkirk, Oklahoma, north of Oklahoma City, near the Kansas state
line in a QSO when his signal was a 4x4 QSB.  When he finished, I
called him at 12:02 pm (1602 UTC), to my surprise he returned my
call with a 3x3 signal report.  Distance was 1,203 miles.  Up to
this point in time, this is my record distance using F3E
modulation.'
 
The latest from WX6SWW:
 
https://youtu.be/KK-kGMZe71Q
 
For more information concerning radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
 
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.
 
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.
 
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.
 
Sunspot numbers for July 9 through 15, 2020 were 0, 12, 0, 0, 0, 0,
and 0, with a mean of 1.7.  10.7 cm flux was 68.7, 68.8, 68.7, 67.6,
68.2, 68.9, and 68.4, with a mean of 68.5.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 4, 3, 3, 3, 6, 11, and 5, with a mean of 5.  Middle
latitude A index was 4, 3, 2, 3, 7, 9, and 6, with a mean of 4.9.