QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33  ARLP033
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  August 16, 2019
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

No sunspots were visible over the recent reporting week, Thursday
through Wednesday, August 8 through 14.
 
According to Spaceweather.com, 67% of the days so far in 2019 have
been spotless, and for all of 2018 it was 61%. In the previous solar
minimum in 2008 and 2009 the spotless days ran 73% and 71%,
respectively.
 
Solar flux has been minimal and unremarkable, with average daily
solar flux changing only to 67.4 from 67.2 last week.
 
Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is likewise unremarkable,
at 67 from August 15 til September 29.
 
Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 16, 5 on August 17, 6 on
August 18, 8 on August 19 and 20, 5 on August 21 to 25, 8 on August
26 to 28, 5 on August 29 to 31, then 38 and 14 on September 1 and 2,
5 on September 3 to 5, 8 on September 6 to 8, 5 on September 9 to
11, 8 on September 12, 5 on September 13 to 21, 8 on September 22 to
24, 5 on September 25 to 27, and in a recurrence of geomagnetic
activity reported in last week's bulletin and also predicted for
September 1, 38 on September 28 and 14 on September 29.
 
On Tuesday, September 10, 2019 I will be conducting an informal
presentation on space weather, propagation and my involvement in
amateur radio since being licensed at the end of cycle 19 at age 12,
at the monthly meeting in Seattle of the Western Washington DX Club.
See https://www.wwdxc.org/ for details.
 
Last weekend was the 65th annual Pacific Northwest DX Convention,
and among the presentations was an excellent talk by Space Weather
Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW. If you ever get a chance to see her
give a talk, don't miss it. Her presentation was excellent.
 
Jim Brown, W5ZIT of Farmersville, Texas (or Tucson, AZ) wrote on
August 15:
 
'I had just finished an Olivia QSO with Fergus ZL2VF via grey line
(7 dB s/n peak) as we usually do around 0300Z when I noticed a very
strong PSK31 signal on 20M which I assumed was a nearby local.
 
When I checked I found that it was Suke JM7OLW at 30 dB plus s/n
ratio. Suke runs 200 Watts to a 5el up about 100 ft, but still that
is a very strong signal to propagate into Tucson, Arizona. Suke gave
me a very good 20 dB plus s/n report.
 
This morning I tuned across a dead 20M band and again saw a 30 dB
plus s/n signal which I again assumed was a local. Instead it was
W4PKU, Fred in VA. With signals barely copyable on 20M PSK in the
last few days, I was really surprised to see this kind of signal.
Fred gave me a 30 dB plus s/n report also, from my 30 Watts into an
80M OCF antenna. Turns out he had also worked Suke in the last few
days also.
 
The bands can still surprise you even at the low end of the cycle.'
 
Be sure to check out the W5ZIT page on QRZ.com.
 
Ken Brown, N4SO wrote on August 15:
 
18.1 MHZ FT8 mode
 
I added Reunion Island and Fiji to the list as worked 'new'
countries on FT8. I have also added a note on both Pacific and
Europe being decoded at 2210 UTC.
 
On several days, 18.1 MHZ was monitored on the digital mode FT8, and
some contacts were made with 10 watts and a half square antenna.
 
The band stays open until about 0300 to 0400 UTC. The numbers on the
left are UTC. It is possible to receive weak Pacific Ocean stations
or W8-(K8FAM), until the band closes completely.

033915 -17 -0.5 1083 ~  CQ E51BQ BG08      S. Cook Is. 
033830   6  0.1 1198 ~  CQ K9OM EN65       USA 

The band opens at approximately 1200 UTC to all of the Northeast
USA, Canada, and also to Europe.

130800 -12  0.5  306 ~  CQ TO5M GN16       Reunion Is. 
131130  -9  0.5  305 ~  N4SO TO5M 73      (Reunion Island new country) 
120430 -14 -0.0  418 ~  CQ EA6VQ JM19      Balearic Is. 
122200 -14  0.1  902 ~  CQ IZ8VYU JN71     Italy 
123130 -11  0.1  902 ~  N4SO IZ8VYU 73 
124830 -17  0.6 1930 ~  CQ 9K2NO LL39      Kuwait 
125215  -3  0.3 1692 ~  CQ HA7TM JN97      Hungary 
131415 -10  0.2 1713 ~  CQ OK2WMC JN99     Czech Rep. 
  
120730  -6  0.0 1452 ~  CQ W9XB EN52       USA 
134700   4  0.1  883 ~  CQ N4TZ EN70       USA 
 
122215 -17  0.3 1333 ~  CQ HA7TM JN97      Hungary 
124745 -19  0.2  831 ~  CQ F8DZU JN15      France 
131915 -15  0.4 2214 ~  CQ VE3MGY EN92     Canada 
141115 -18  0.1  709 ~  CQ PA9CC JO32      Netherlands 
 
During daylight hours, the 18 MHZ band continues to remain open to
North America, Europe and also to the Caribbean and South America.
 
Africa?  Around 1800 UTC 
184700   0  0.4 2513 ~  9G2HO KA1J FN31    Ghana
 
Europe and Pacific Ocean? The point of this is to show that
propagation to both Cyprus and Fiji is possible, with the signals
from Europe and Russia very weak and not workable. Fiji was worked
though.

221000 -16 -0.1  949 ~  CQ 5B4AMX KM65     Cyprus 
221300 -13  0.2 2098 ~  CQ 3D2AG RH91      Fiji  (new country) 
221700 -17  0.4 2095 ~  N4SO 3D2AG -11 
 
Before sundown (7:36 local time) there is a possibility of Japan and
Far East stations, or to New Zealand and also Australia. Good times
are 2200 to 0200 UTC. Japan is favorable after 2200 UTC. Most of
these were easily worked:
 
222300 -14  0.1 1825 ~  N4SO JF8QNF -19 
222300 -12 -0.4  654 ~  N4SO JH0INP PM96 
222900 -12  0.1 1908 ~  N4SO JH7CVM 73 
222930 -13  0.1 2043 ~  N4SO JH2FXK RR73 
224230 -13  0.4  474 ~  N4SO JA1XEC RR73 
224900  -7  0.1  787 ~  N4SO JA1NCZ RR73 
 
020000 -16 -0.1 2155 ~  N4SO VK7WX R-10 
020015  Tx      2375 ~  VK7WX N4SO RR73                       
020030 -17 -0.1 2156 ~  N4SO VK7WX 73  
222415 -17  0.1 1859 ~  CQ DX JA7QVI QM08  Japan 
000700 -13 -0.1  485 ~  CQ JA8KSF QN03     Japan  
004300 -16  0.1 1650 ~  CQ VK4PY QG62      Australia 
This ZL station was worked with 10 watts, and the numbers (-1) show
good signals propagated to New Zealand.
004730  -3  0.1 1536 ~  CQ ZL2IFB RF80     New Zealand 
004830  -1  0.2 1536 ~  N4SO ZL2IFB R-02 
 
During the evening hours the band is open to the West coast and
British Columbia, Canada, and the Pacific such as FK8 New Caledonia.
The band usually closes with W6, W7, W0 or W9 in the USA, or a
Pacific Ocean station (South Cook Island E51BQ).'
 
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [email protected].
 
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
 
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.
 
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.
 
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.
 
Sunspot numbers for August 8 through 14, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.6, 67.2, 67.2, 67.6,
67.2, 66.8, and 67.4, with a mean of 67.4. Estimated planetary A
indices were 7, 6, 8, 6, 5, 7, and 5 with a mean of 6.3. Middle
latitude A index was 6, 7, 8, 7, 7, 8, and 5, with a mean of 6.9.