QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37  ARLP037
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  September 13, 2019
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP037
ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

No sunspots this week. Average daily sunspot numbers declined from
3.4 to 0. At the same time, average daily solar flux rose from
67.4 to 69.4.

Geomagnetic activity quieted, with average daily planetary A index
declining from 19.9 to 8.9, while average daily mid-latitude A index
went from 16.7 to 7.7.

Predicted solar flux is 68 on September 13-22, 69 on September 23
through October 5, 68 on October 6-19, 69 on October 20-24, 68 on
October 25 and 69 on October 26-27.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 13-22, 8 on September
23, 5 on September 24-25, then 10, 35, 45, 20 and 10 on September
26-30, then 8, 10 and 8 on October 1-3, 5 on October 4-19, 8 on
October 20, 5 on October 21-22, then 8, 25, 30, 18 and 8 on October
23-27.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 13 til
October 9, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

'Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: September 14-16, 20 (-21,) November 8-9
Quiet to unsettled on: September 13, 17-19, 22, (24,) November 4-7
Quiet to active on: September 23, 25, 30, November 1-3
Unsettled to active on: September (26)
Active to disturbed: September (27-29)

'Solar wind will intensify on: September 16, (24-27,) 28-30. October
1 (-4, 7-9)

'-Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
-The predictability of changes remains lower at present.'

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote: 'There was some sporadic-E skip on 6 meters
September 1 from the Midwest to Mexico to W6 and W7. From Kansas, I
worked XE2OR in Mexico, and several stations in Arizona and
California.

'On September 7, stations in New England worked the Gulf Coast. The
Es may have been associated with active geomagnetic field
conditions.'

Ken Brown, N4SO of Grand Bay, Alabama reports on his recent FT8
contacts on 17 and 40 meters: '17 Meters remains stable and a very
good daylight band for DX.  Here is a sample of contacts on the FT8
digital mode.

'18.100 FT8  Sept. 11
 135800 -15  0.1 1795   N4SO SP9DWT RR73 (Poland)
 170830 -17  0.3 1278   N4SO 5B4ALJ RR73  (Mike in Cyprus)
 170900 -16  0.4  779   CQ AL ON5CD JO20   Belgium  (Note calling CQ
 for Alabama.
 171130 -11  0.4  779   N4SO ON5CD RR73  
 171700 -16  0.2 1676   CQ MM0CEZ IO75     Scotland

'40 Meters remains an excellent band for DX contacts during the night
with a world-wide range of countries on the FT8 digital mode.

'7.074 FT8  Sept. 9
 131415  -1  0.5 1705   CQ KH2L QK23       Guam
 132945  -9  0.1 2340   N4SO KH2L R-23
 133000  Tx      2378   KH2L N4SO RR73'

Mike, K6THZ in Santa Clara, California reports unexpected
propagation on 15 meters via FT8 late at night, including a QSO with
Norway.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [email protected].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for September 5 through 11, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.3, 68.9, 73.9, 67.5,
68.8, 70, and 68.1, with a mean of 69.4. Estimated planetary A
indices were 14, 8, 7, 10, 14, 4, and 5, with a mean of 8.9. Middle
latitude A index was 11, 9, 6, 9, 11, 4, and 4, with a mean of 7.7.