QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42  ARLP042
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  October 18, 2019
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP042
ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity remains very low. At the bottom of the sunspot cycle,
any sunspot activity is fleeting. Again, another week passes with no
sunspots at all. Spaceweather.com reports no sunspots for the past
two weeks, and the total number of spotless days this year is now
213 days, or 73%, matching the percentage of spotless days in 2008.

Average daily solar flux during the week of October 10-16 was 67.3,
down insignificantly from 67.6 during the previous week.

Average daily planetary A index was 6.4, down from 14.4 in the
previous week, and average daily mid-latitude A index declined from
11 to 5.1.

The predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 66 on October
18-25, then 68 on October 26 through December 1.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 18-20, then 12, 8, 5,
20, 25, 12, 10 and 8 on October 21-28, then 5 on October 29 to
November 9, then 8 on November 10-11, then 5 on November 12-16, 15
on November 17, 5 on November 18-19, then 15, 20, 10 and 8 on
November 20-23, and 5 on November 24-30.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 18 until November
12, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

'Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on: October 29-30, November 8-9, 11-12
Quiet to unsettled on: October 18-20, 22-23, November 4-5, 7, 10
Quiet to active on: October 28, 31, November 2-3
Unsettled to active on: October 21, 27, November 1, 6
Active to disturbed: October (24-) 25 (-26)

'Solar wind will intensify on: October 11 (-14, 21-23. 25), 26,
November 7-9.

' - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.  
  - The predictability of changes remains lower again.'

Rick Tucker, W0RT of Parsons, Kansas was listening for HZ1TT (Saudi
Arabia) on October 14 on 21.023 MHz at 1045 UTC. The band sounded
dead, but at 1115 UTC he copied 8 or 10 European stations calling
and working the Saudi station. Rick said he never heard HZ1TT, but
HZ1TT was spotted by a VE9.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [email protected].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 10 through 16, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.5, 68.5, 68.3, 67.2,
66.2, 67.2, and 66.3, with a mean of 67.3. Estimated planetary A
indices were 13, 8, 5, 2, 6, 5, and 6, with a mean of 6.4. Middle
latitude A index was 10, 6, 4, 1, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5.1.