QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47  ARLP047
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 19, 2021
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

New sunspots appeared on November 14 and 16, but solar activity was
lower and geomagnetic activity as well.

More recently, over November 16-18 the total sunspot area declined
from 330, to 270 to only 40 millionths of a hemisphere, the lowest
observed recently.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 36.4 last week to 30.9
in the recent reporting week, November 11-17.

Solar flux averages were off as well, to 80.8 this week compared to
89.1 in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP046.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 18 to 7, and average
middle latitude numbers went from 11.7 to 4.9. Middle latitude A
index daily average went all the way down to 0 on November 13.

We see no high numbers in the solar flux prediction, which has 80 on
November 19-20, 82 on November 21-23, 86 on November 24-26, 85 on
November 27, 83 on November 28-29, 85 on November 30 through
December 2, 82 on December 3-11, then 79, 80 and 79 on December
12-14, then 78, 77, 79 and 81 on December 15-18, 83 on December
19-21, and 85 on December 22-24.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12. 15 and 8 on November 19-22, 5
on November 23-27, then 10, 10 and 8 on November 28-30, 5 on
December 1-12, 12 on December 13-14, and back to 5 on December
15-24, then 10 on December 25-26.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 19 to December
15, 2021 from OK1HH.
 
'Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: 21, 24, December 5, 10, 12,
quiet to unsettled on: November 19-20, 22-23, 25, December 9, 11,
quiet to active on: November 28-30, December 2, 6, 8,
unsettled to active on: November 26-27, December 3-4, 7, 15,
Active to disturbed: December 1, (13-14),
 
'Solar wind will intensify on November (29-30), December (1,) 2-4,
14-15.
 
'Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- An important notice will be issued next Thursday, i.e., November 25.'

WB8VLC reported from Salem, Oregon:

'On Nov 13 on 10 meter CW at 2236 UTC I came across a loud CW
station calling CQ, Nick, VK9DX on Norfolk Island.

'After the usual reports and such of which Nick was a true 589 on
CW, I listened to Nick for another 10 minutes calling CQ on 10
meters after which he stopped after a couple more lucky hams caught
him.

'On a guess I checked out 12 and 15 meters to see if maybe the VK9
would end up on one of these bands, and sure enough at 2307 UTC I
found VK9DX finishing a QSO on 12 meter SSB with a real 58-9 signal
and then we had a nice 10 minute or so SSB chat.

'Nick runs a vertical dipole and nothing fancy antenna or power wise
except for what looks to be a great take-off shot to North America
which accounted for his true 589 on 10 CW and 58-9 on 12 SSB.

'After 12 meters faded out, I went to 15 meters to see if he moved
there but he wasn't to be found; however, I did find Stuie, VK8NSB
in Darwin Australia calling CQ on CW with a great 589 signal into
Oregon.'

Somehow, I missed this, but a few weeks ago KB1DK reported from
Trumbull, Connecticut on November 1:

'Here is my report for the 2021 CQWW SSB Contest:

'After enjoying wide open band conditions on 15 meters Saturday, we
experienced a solid 2 hour opening on 10 meters to CQ zones 14, 15,
and 20 on Sunday morning starting at 1430 UTC here in Connecticut
(FN31). I was able to log 108 contacts using just an inverted vee.
Almost all signals were S8 and above, and the band was full of
activity between 28.300 and 28.750. There was minimal fading during
the opening and most of the stations were heard during the entire 2
hour period. It was great to hear the words 'thanks for the fifth
band' being exchanged on more than one occasion.

'The only countries not heard were the Scandinavians, although I
worked OX7A on a random visit to 10 meters on Saturday at 1620 UTC.
The longest distances worked were to Greece and Israel. The best
part of the contest weekend were the conditions on 10, 15 and 40
meters and working 4 stations on all 5 bands.'

ARRL SSB Sweepstakes is this weekend, a very big and popular
domestic radio contest. Check www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for
details.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, [email protected] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 11 through 17, 2021 were 39, 39, 24,
23, 23, 35, and 33, with a mean of 30.9. 10.7 cm flux was 84.5,
82.9, 81, 78.7, 79.3, 80.1, and 79.2, with a mean of 80.8. Estimated
planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 4, 9, 13, and 12, with a mean of
7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 0, 2, 6, 11, and 9, with a mean
of 4.9.