QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 30, 2021
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

Last Friday's Propagation Forecast bulletin was delayed due to the
Thanksgiving holiday and K7RA hospitalization.

Average daily sunspot numbers for the reporting week, (November
18-24) were off by 4 points from 30.9 to 26.9, and average daily
solar flux went from 80.8 to 80.1.

Average daily planetary A index moved from 7 to 7.9, and average
daily middle latitude numbers went from 4.9 to 5.4.

Predicted solar flux is 92, 94 and 94 on November 29 to December 1,
88 on December 2-6, 82 on December 7-8, 85 on December 9-11, 82 and
80 on December 12-13, 78 on December 14-20, 80 on December 21, 82 on
December 22-26, 85 on December 27-30, and 82 on December 31 through
January 4, 2022.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 29, 5 on November 30
through December 2, 10 on December 3-4, 8 on December 5-6, 5 on
December 7-11, then 8, 12 and 10 on December 12-14, 5 on December
15-16, then 8, 10 and 10 on December 17-19, 5 on December 20-23, 10
and 8 on December 24-25, and 5 on December 26 through January 7.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 26 to December
22, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.  This will be his final report.

'Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: December 5, 10, 12,
quiet to unsettled on: December 9, 11,
quiet to active on: November 28-30, December 2, 6, 8,
unsettled to active on: November 26-27, December 3-4, 7, 15,
Active to disturbed: December 1, (13-14,) 16, 19, 21-22,
 
'Solar wind will intensify on November (29-30), December (1,) 2-4,
14-15, and 29.
 
'Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Important notice: You have just received my latest prediction of
Earth's magnetic field activity. Nothing like that existed 45 years
ago, so I learned to compile predictions of the Earth's magnetic
field activity.  Today we have relatively good forecasts from
several places and I, given my age, can finally end this activity.
Thank you for your attention.  F. K. Janda, OK1HH.'

N4SO reports from Southern Alabama on the Gulf of Mexico, EM50tk.

'Frequency is 24915 FT8 mode (using WSJT-X v2.5.2 68dc11).
Propagation is to the North East, all with approximately the same
bearing of 41 to 54 degrees, and grids FN20, FM29, FM18, EM74, FM05,
EM84.

'26 November, 2:51 AM
Rx at Fri, 26 Nov 2021 08:51:00 GMT
>From N4SO by WZ7I Loc FN20kk83
Frequency: 24.915.993 MHz (12m)
FT8, -17dB
Distance: 1015 miles bearing 43 degrees

'3:02 AM
Rx at Fri, 26 Nov 2021 09:02:11 GMT
>From N4SO by NA2R Loc FM29TN
Frequency: 24.915.917 MHz (12m)
FT8, -9dB
Distance: 1010 miles bearing 47 degrees

'3:06 AM
Rx at Fri, 26 Nov 2021 09:06:45 GMT
>From N4SO by K1HTV-4 Loc FM18ap
Frequency: 24.915.900 MHz (12m)
FT8, -17dB
Distance: 819 miles bearing 43 degrees.'

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, [email protected] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 18 through 24, 2021 were 22, 22, 22,
22, 22, 39, and 39, with a mean of 26.9. 10.7 cm flux was 81.8, 79,
79.6, 78.9, 78.3, 79.8, and 83.4, with a mean of 80.1. Estimated
planetary A indices were 5, 5, 10, 12, 9, 9, and 5, with a mean of
7.9. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 7, 8, 7, 7, and 3, with a
mean of 5.4.