QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49  ARLP049
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  December 4, 2015
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

Solar indicators dropped this week, with average daily sunspot
numbers at 41.6 from November 26 through December 2, down from 62.7
in the previous seven days.

Average daily solar flux dropped 18 points, from 115.2 to 97.2. A
week ago the predicted average daily solar flux for the same period
was 111.4, more than 14 points above the actual outcome.

Average daily planetary A index was 9.9, while average daily
mid-latitude A index was 6.6, more than double the two figures for
the previous week, 4.1 and 3.1 respectively. But there were no days
with high geomagnetic activity. The most was on Monday and Tuesday,
with planetary A index at 19 and 14 indicating moderately unsettled
conditions.

Predicted solar flux is 95 on December 4, 90 on December 5-8, 95 on
December 9-10, 105 on December 11, 115 on December 12-13, then 110,
105 and 100 on December 14-16, 105 on December 17-18, 110 on
December 19-20, 105 on December 21, and 100 on December 22-26.
Following this coming week the lowest predicted solar flux is on
just one day, at 95 on December 27, five days after the Winter
Solstice.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 4-5, then 18, 25, 20
and 15 on December 6-9, then 8 on December 10-15, then 10 and 8 on
December 16-17, 5 on December 18-23 and 8 on December 24-26. The
next period of unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions is
December 28, with a predicted planetary A index of 25. The planetary
A index doesn't settle down to 5 again until mid-January.

OK1HH predicts geomagnetic activity will be quiet to unsettled
December 4-5, active to disturbed December 6-8, quiet on December 9,
quiet to active December 10, mostly quiet December 11, quiet to
unsettled December 12-14, quiet to active December 15, mostly quiet
December 16, quiet on December 17-23, mostly quiet December 24-25,
quiet to active December 26-27, mostly quiet December 28, active to
disturbed December 29, and back to quiet again on December 30.

He expects an increase in solar wind on December (5-7), 8-10,
(11-12, 16-20,) 26-27, and (28-29). He is less certain about
heightened activity on the dates in parenthesis.

Unfortunately, we received no reports on conditions during last
weekend's CQ World-Wide CW DX contest. This weekend is the ARRL 160
Meter contest. This is a CW only event, and lasts 42 hours with no
time limit from 2200 UTC Friday (today) to 1600 UTC on Sunday,
December 4-6.

See www.arrl.org/160-meter for complete details and rules.

With low predicted geomagnetic activity over the weekend, 160 meters
should be in good shape for the contest.

Average daily sunspot number for the month of November was 61.9. For
August, September and October the monthly averages were 61.7, 72.5,
and 59.6.

Our three month moving average of daily sunspot numbers, (September
1 through November 30) was 64.6. For the 3 month periods ending in
June through October the averages were 77.7, 76.3, 69.1, 67.5 and
64.5. At the cycle's peak, for periods ending in March and April of
2014, the 3 month moving averages were 146.4 and 148.2. It's been a
pretty steady decrease since then, with the averages dropping below
100 at the beginning of this year.

Don Anderson, N7EF of Kent, Washington sends this video about a 2018
space mission all the way to the Sun:  on.wsj.com/1l5FZHr

Andrew Gudas, N7TP of Amargosa Valley, Nevada sends along this story
about scary superflares: bit.ly/21AsfVJ

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [email protected].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at k9la.us/.

My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar
flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
bit.ly/1VOqf9B and bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .

Click on 'Download this file' to download the archive, and ignore
the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress
the download.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 26 through December 2 were 56, 48, 36,
47, 51, 27, and 26, with a mean of 41.6. 10.7 cm flux was 103.9,
98.9, 96.6, 95.5, 95.7, 94.6, and 95.3, with a mean of 97.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 7, 8, 9, 19, 14, and 9, with a
mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 4, 5, 7, 10,
11, and 7, with a mean of 6.6.